Analysis: The US job market remains stable, and the Federal Reserve may postpone resuming interest rate cuts until September

According to a report by Jinshi, the US job market performed steadily in June, with non farm employment increasing by 147000 people, higher than the revised 144000 people in May; The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, and economists had previously predicted a slight increase to 4.3%. The report indicates that the labor market remains stable, which may cause the Federal Reserve to postpone the resumption of interest rate cuts until September. Although employment growth exceeded expectations, the growth rate is slowing down, mainly reflecting weak recruitment activities. Layoffs are still quite low. During and after the COVID-19 pandemic, employers generally hoarded workers because they had difficulty finding labor. Multiple indicators, including the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits and recipients of unemployment benefits, show that the labor market is showing signs of fatigue after experiencing strong performance in protecting the economy from recession. At that time, the Federal Reserve significantly tightened monetary policy to combat high inflation.