The market on July 9th next week is bound to be unstable On July 9th, the "deadline" for US and European tariffs came into effect on the same day. Trump has postponed the 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9th to gain negotiation time. -If it lands, the short-term fluctuations in the European export sector and the US European exchange rates will intensify -The delayed market will interpret it as a political chip rather than a policy necessity, and risk assets will rebound accordingly The FOMC June minutes will also be released on July 9th, and this round of minutes will for the first time fully present the differences among committee members regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs: Doves emphasize employment and corporate financing costs, while hawks are concerned about secondary inflation. The market will use it to predict the probability of a rate cut in September. If the minutes show that a significant portion of the committee members are inclined to lower interest rates in advance, the yield of 2-y US Treasury bonds may instantly drop to around 4.00%, benefiting non US and venture capital assets (especially cryptocurrencies) China's CPI/PPI for June was also announced on July 9th This data is a key window for observing input inflation vs. weak domestic demand: Either 1. CPI still hovering around 0% and PPI continues to be negative ➜ domestic demand recovery is weak, the pressure of RMB depreciation has rebounded, and the inflationary momentum of the global commodity chain may weaken Either 2. CPI returns to above+0.5%, resonating with the recent rebound in industrial metal and energy prices, and the global inflation narrative is heating up.