We may really be about to see the upcoming third party in the United States. Looking at Ma Ge's tweet in the early morning, does it feel like the official announcement of the establishment of the American Party? Finally taking this step. From a series of tweets by Lao Ma before, I have a preliminary understanding of several ideas about the American Party: 1. The American Party aims to become an influential faction, but it does not necessarily mean becoming one of the largest two parties. Following Lao Ma's approach: focus on obtaining 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House of Representatives constituencies. The Republican Party has a slight lead in Congress, and these seats are enough to influence the legislative process. Key Third Party, Typical 'Key Point Blasting' Approach 2. According to Grok's tweet forwarded by Lao Ma, the American Party is focusing on aggressively attacking key swing states, dividing the Republican Party's votes in seven major swing states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. 3. Possible Program of the American Party: The "manifesto" just forwarded by Musk: 1) Reduce debt+responsible spending; 2) Realize military modernization through AI+robot technology; 3) Supporting technology and accelerating development to win the competition of AI; 4) Reduce regulation, especially in energy; 4) Encourage childbirth; 6) Adopt centrist policies in other fields 4. Old Ma's intention Look at the tweets that Lao Ma interacted with others before. First, he aimed at the mid-term elections next year. At the same time, there are longer-term considerations. His tweets said that "Trump's term of office is only 3.5 years, but I can stay in office for 40 years". 5. Can it be made? With the wealth of Lao Ma's richest man and the largest social media platform resources on Twitter, Lao Ma himself has top-notch attention and many loyal fans. It is undeniable that Lao Ma helped Trump win a considerable proportion of the votes in the 24 year US election. From this perspective, there is a high probability that Lao Ma can become a key third party. 6. What will be the impact? It will profoundly affect the political ecology of the United States, transforming the two party system into a multi-party system, with the key third party becoming the decisive force in legislation. 7. What is the risk? Naturally, it is the retaliation from Trump. Even the Democratic Party may not want to see the emergence of the key third party, so there is more uncertainty for one player. If Lao Ma insists on pushing forward, the political risks he will face later should not be small. Various forms of suppression and retaliation from the political level These political crackdowns are not only aimed at Lao Ma himself, Lao Ma's industry, but also at Tesla spacex、 Even Twitter X may face various forms of suppression. Before the final dust settles and the pattern is determined, new risks are injected into its business. I hope Ma Ge can withstand these risks smoothly.