The main reason for the slight recovery in the market today is that Trump once again implemented TACO, and previously said that it would never extend the time for signing tariffs. As a result, this time it was postponed from July 9 to August 1. From the current situation, it should be that at least one of the major trading countries that is difficult to deal with has not determined or is related to the Federal Reserve. The possibility of the EU is not high. Although progress has been slow before, recent signals have been relatively positive, and the US Canada Mexico agreement is also basically stable, with no obvious cracks seen. The biggest uncertainty may still be China. China is currently not included in the list of 14 countries, and there is no tariff letter publicly available, so it is likely to be arranged separately, and the specific tariff plan may still be in the game. Another important factor that cannot be ignored is the Federal Reserve. Trump's "Beautiful Bill" has determined that tariffs were also planned to be implemented. If these two policies were launched at the same time, the market's expectations of inflation would rise rapidly, and the pressure of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates would be heavier, which would reduce the market's risk appetite. Therefore, Trump is likely to use this month's time to determine the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, so as to form contradictions and pressures within the Federal Reserve, stimulate investors' risk appetite to increase externally, and thus hedge the pressure caused by tariffs. There is not much information about Bitcoin. Everything is still normal in terms of data, and there are no signs of systemic risk. As mentioned yesterday, the US stock market and BTC are still highly overlapping in the overall direction. As long as there are no major problems with the US stock market, the stability of BTC will also be relatively high. At present, the support and structure are also very stable, and the market's game still depends on tariffs and monetary policies. Data address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing