After reading the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, there is not much else to talk about. The issue of interest rate cuts that everyone is most concerned about is the cautious and dovish attitude of most committee members. They believe that there will still be one or several interest rate cut windows in 2025, provided that inflation continues to fall, economic activity slows down, and the impact of tariffs is not significant. The attitude of a minority of committee members is more dovish, and they are preparing to cut interest rates at any time. They explicitly mentioned that the next meeting (in July) may cut interest rates, but it is not a condition, provided that the data for June and July continue to move towards a soft landing. That is to say, inflation continues to fall and economic activity has not slowed down. Hawks are also a minority opinion, and they choose to remain inactive because inflation remains stubborn, short-term inflation expectations are still high, they are concerned about the market relaxing too early, and they believe that the economic resilience is stronger than market expectations, so they are not in a hurry to move. There were 19 people in the FOMC, of whom 12 were able to vote and 7 participated in the discussion but did not vote. The final decision was determined by the statements of those 12 people. According to my personal estimation, there are approximately 7-9 neutral pigeons and 3-4 pure pigeons, with 2 of them being Bauman and Waller, and 2-3 pure eagles. If viewed according to this annotation, as long as inflation in June and July can be slightly reduced, the majority of members who agree to cut interest rates in September should be the majority. If the unemployment rate in June and July rises and exceeds 4.3%, the majority of members who agree to cut interest rates in September should also be the majority. If inflation continues to rise and the unemployment rate remains low or below 4.2%, the September interest rate cut will still be a game.