The conflict between Iran and Iraq, the Great Beauty Act, the extension of tariffs to August 1, and the expectation of market interest rate reduction were boosted (Trump pressured Powell in various ways). The US stock market has gone well in the past two weeks. However, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has been fluctuating from 4.1% to over 4.4%, approaching the threshold of 4.6%. I talked about it in May before: 4.6% is the threshold (or threshold) for the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the higher it goes, the greater the market pressure. Below this threshold, the market still has support. Ignoring the expectation of interest rate cuts, US10y turned its head upwards, and the bond market hinted that it is worth paying attention to. Presumably, the possible factors are as follows: 1) Although the tariff deadline has been postponed, the recent negotiation process with other countries has not been smooth. z Trump announced to raise tariffs on Canada these two days, and for Brazil, the tariff is included in the political issues (by raising tariffs to pressure Brazil on the trial of former President Bosonaro, who was regarded as an ally of Trump in Latin America in his last term). These actions still make the bond market institutions uneasy; 2) Next week is the key point for June's CPI data. At that time, we can see the impact of the already implemented 10% tariff on inflation? Bond market institutions seek early hedging As mentioned above, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is now close to the threshold, but there is still a distance to go. It is not yet the time to face a big enemy, but we need to pay attention to the subsequent trend.