
飞凡|Jul 21, 2025 15:08
Actually, BTC and ETH have completely different logics
Trading BTC is like making macro investments
Trading ETH is like doing tech stocks
Trading BTC is more like doing bulk commodities or treasury bond, focusing on macro expectations, ETF purchase/redemption data and futures basis. The pace of positions is slow, but you can be more daring because of deep liquidity.
ETH is no longer an asset, trading ETH follows the logic of technology stocks and cash flow,
You can play with it as a profitable technology stock, driven mainly by narrative and completely different from BTC's macro driven logic. Lack of narrative, low on chain activity, and low gas consumption will lead to inflation and continuous POS selling.
So giving the BTC set to ETH may not have a very good effect, and full BTC positions are definitely more secure than full ETH positions. Most institutions and long-term holders are also more inclined to leverage full BTC positions.
So if the macro situation improves, BTC will rise, but ETH may not necessarily rise. That's why BTC usually leads the bull market in the early stages, and ETH tends to start when the macro situation is optimistic enough, which is usually in the middle and later stages of the bull market. That's why more people are trapped in ETH instead of BTC.
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