Goldman Sachs: Expected Trump administration base tariff rate to rise to 15%

According to a report by Golden Ten, David Mericle, Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs in the United States, predicts that the basic "equivalent" tariff rate in the United States will be raised from 10% to 15%, with copper and key mineral tariffs reaching 50% - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumption and incorporate the "initial observation" of the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised it from 2.0% to 2.4% in 2027. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% within 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage point in 2026, and 0.3 percentage point in 2027. Goldman Sachs has correspondingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.