2025 bull market reflexivity thinking: ① Since there was a knockoff season in Q4 of 2017, it is highly likely that the current bull market will experience fluctuations in Q4 and then go bear. ② In history, there was no knockoff season in Q3, and this memory does not exist in human thinking. Therefore, the probability of knockoff season in Q3 is the highest. Things to pay attention to: People, driven by their own wishful thinking, missed the peak of the 2017 Q4 knockoff season and ultimately placed their hopes on interest rate cuts next year. But the power of mean regression is greater than anything else. The emotional aspect ranks second and can only determine the mid-term top. At the end of 2024, the Emotional Greed Index will reach 95 °, the mid-term peak, but not the four-year cycle peak. As for the news aspect, it ranks last. There are too many news sides in a bull market, without this news side, there is that news side, and you can expect it in advance. The first interest rate cut is somewhat effective, the second rebound, and the third decline. Mean regression (fundamentals)>sentiment>news (positive). btc ETH