Macro investment: As long as the inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

According to a report by Golden Finance and China Merchants Macro Research, Powell is still concerned about the risk of stagflation, which means that as long as the inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates. In June, the Federal Reserve issued a forward-looking judgment on the risk of stagflation. Continuing this tone in July, Powell's concern about "inflation" was significantly higher than his concern about "stagnation". The most important statement was that "current inflation is above the target level, and employment is at the target level, so policies should remain moderately restrictive". Powell needs to confirm that the impact of tariff inflation is fully reflected.