Mizuho Securities: Circle faces medium-term risks from slowing USDC growth, rising distribution costs, and potential interest rate cuts According to The Block, stock researchers at Mizuho Securities have stated that Circle stocks are facing medium-term risks such as slower than expected USDC growth, rising distribution costs, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Analysts predict CRCL's benchmark stock price to be $84, and a pessimistic forecast suggests that the stock price will ultimately be $40 by 2027, lower than the company's closing price of $153.16 on Wednesday, the day after the release of its quarterly financial report. It is worth noting that Bernstein analysts maintain a target price of $230 for the stock. Analysts believe that there may be three reasons for the unexpectedly poor performance of the stock: Firstly, the gap between USDC's "dream" and "reality" in terms of issuance is widening. Although the stablecoin has grown by 6% so far in the quarter due to increasing interest in cryptocurrency, this is still below the company's long-term compound annual growth rate expectation of 40%. In addition, with the continuous increase in issuance costs, Circle's profit margin seems to be further compressed, as it rose from 39% of the reserve pool in 2022 to 61% in 2024... and even reached 64% in the second quarter, "analysts pointed out. With the enactment of the Genius Act, intensified competition may accelerate this process. Currently, several large institutions have expressed interest in launching or introducing stablecoins, while Circle's biggest competitor Tether is developing plans to return to the US market. Finally, analysts stated that the cooling of CPI is good news for the economy, but bad news for CRCL. ”The US Department of Labor reported on Tuesday that the US Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly lower than expected, which has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.