Me talking about markets and Bessent's Comments about the Fed cutting rates. --- Over the last 33 years, the Fed only cut rates once when core CPI was above 3%, which was last year. 10-year yields shot up from 3.6% in September to 4.85% in January. In other words, the Treasury market saw that rate cut as a mistake. Going further back in history, the Fed cut rates with core CPI above 3% between October 1990 and March 1991. Recall that Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990 as crude oil prices were around 20. By October 1990, prices shot to over 40. Even though core CPI was 5% and rising, this was a special circumstance and the Fed/markets were outright panicking that the upcoming Gulf War (which started in January 1991 and lasted about 4 days) was going to produce 100 crude oil and a depression. Prior to that episode, there were a couple of other instances when the Fed cut rates with core CPI above 3%: * October 1987: another special circumstance – the stock market crash * October 1985: core CPI and interest rates were plunging from their 200-year highs set in 1981, but had not yet fallen below 3%(Jim Bianco)