飞凡
飞凡|Sep 07, 2025 02:12
September might bring a significant price bottom for the market. This week, Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows have been highly volatile (inflows of $333M on September 2, $301M on September 3, and then turning to outflows on September 4), indicating cautious attitudes with quick in-and-out moves ahead of major macroeconomic data releases. Despite short-term fluctuations, top-tier products like BlackRock's IBIT, with assets under management reaching approximately $83.6 billion (holding around 750,000 BTC), provide strong support to absorb downward pressure in the market. From the ETF demand side alone, if ETFs can shift to sustained net inflows for 3-5 consecutive trading days around the CPI/FOMC meetings, rather than alternating between inflows and outflows, it would be a strong signal of a confirmed phase bottom. Of course, there are three potential time windows to watch: 1. Around Thursday (September 11) at 9:30 PM, when the U.S. August inflation data is released. 2. The FOMC meeting from September 16-18. 3. The derivatives expiration pressure release from September 24-27. The first two events typically see a dip followed by a rebound, while the month-end options expiration often brings the final drop of the month. However, looking at the combined period of 1 and 2 (September 11 to 17), this is likely the most definitive bottoming range for the month. On the other hand, miner selling pressure remains low, and the market's decline is more driven by macro factors and fund flows. With underlying liquidity trending healthier, the market rebound certainly has some fuel. It’s a good time to consider buying the dip boldly.
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