The Major Impacts of Shigeru Ishiba's Resignation 1. Accelerated Political Restructuring With Shigeru Ishiba stepping down, the LDP can initiate a leadership election at any time. Candidates like Sanae Takaichi may represent a more moderate or fiscally expansionary direction. 2. Significant Increase in Monetary Policy Uncertainty Previously, the key factor in determining whether the Bank of Japan would raise rates in October was whether the Ishiba administration could hold on until the meeting. Now that he has chosen to resign, the BOJ faces the dilemma of interpreting the new cabinet's intentions, likely delaying discussions or even freezing the rate hike timeline. 3. Fiscal Policy May Shift Towards Expansion The market had speculated that if Sanae Takaichi took office, tax cuts could accompany her policies, intensifying concerns about deficits and long-term interest rates. This could further steepen the yield curve. 4. Increased Market Volatility and Risk Sentiment Political turmoil typically triggers sensitive reactions in the Nikkei Index, bonds, and exchange rates. Japanese bond yields may reassess fiscal sustainability, while the yen could face downward pressure, leading to short-term capital flow volatility. 5. Greater Ambiguity in BOJ Policy Path Nomura's previously outlined primary path (rate hike in January 2026) and secondary paths (rate hikes in October 2025 and April 2026) now face heightened uncertainty due to political instability, particularly around the October rate decision window, leaving the BOJ in a "wait-and-see" mode. Last year, Japan's August 5th rate hike shattered long-standing ultra-loose monetary expectations, indirectly causing a Bitcoin crash. This time, Ishiba's resignation increases the likelihood of a delayed October rate hike → weaker yen → bullish for BTC, potentially boosting BTC buy orders during the Asian trading session. #ShigeruIshiba #JapanPolitics #BOJ #BTC $BTC $JPY $ETH