Today is September 22nd, BTC price: 112,400. ETH's flash crash dragged down the entire market, causing heavy losses. In the article we posted two days ago, we mentioned that ETH has basically said goodbye to major rallies—whether it's spot or contracts, we’re not participating anymore. Unless there’s a special reason, I believe institutions have also reached this consensus, combined with the hawkish remarks following the 25 basis point rate cut. This led to today's flash crash. Since it’s already a fact, we can only look at what happens next and figure out how to recover from this loss. First, everyone is definitely wondering: when to buy the dip? And has the upward trend been broken? I'll answer these separately. First, the overall direction is still bullish, and there won’t be continuous declines. The reason is that this wave of upward movement has limited space—BTC only has an 8% range from 107,000 to 117,000. I’ve divided it into two tiers: - The first tier is the current level. Considering the 4-hour timeframe hasn’t stabilized yet, let’s wait and see where tonight’s support level lands. - The second tier is the starting point of this rally at 107,000. If it reaches this level, a rebound is inevitable. As for whether it will break below this low, I don’t think it will. This is the major support level from July to September, spanning two months. To summarize: - The market won’t experience continuous major declines. - Today’s flash crash was unexpected, but the trend hasn’t been broken. You can refer to Chart 3—it’s an extreme pullback to the 4-hour MA250, which corresponds to the current first tier. The downside space has been reached, but the timing hasn’t yet. Wait for ETH to stabilize and see if tonight presents a dip-buying opportunity. If there’s no sign of stabilization, then the second tier can be directly bought as the probability of a rebound here is 90%.