
Phyrex|Sep 24, 2025 20:59
Today's homework feels a bit easier to write. Although the U.S. stock market's performance still isn't great, BTC's price has rebounded slightly. I always enjoy comparing Bitcoin with the U.S. stock market. Even though it looks like the stock market has been dropping over the past two days, BTC actually started its decline earlier. Especially over the weekend, BTC's movements seemed more like a preemptive 'expectation' of the stock market. Plus, judging from market reactions, there doesn't seem to be any anticipation of systemic risk.
Friday brings the core PCE data, which is one of the more important data points recently. The market's current expectations for core PCE are relatively optimistic. The key annualized data is expected to match the previous value. According to data from the Cleveland Fed, it's at 2.99%, which is higher than the previous value and above expectations, while the monthly rate is slightly below expectations. If the released data is less than or equal to expectations, it could help market sentiment. But if it's higher than expected, we might see more turbulence.
My current long position is up by just under 20%. I'm debating whether to reduce my holdings before Friday's core PCE release. Betting on data is always a frustrating thing, especially with the weekend right after. If the data turns out bad and carries over into the weekend, it could get even messier. So, should I choose to take smaller profits or risk potential losses?
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, today's turnover rate is even lower. Generally, a low turnover rate indicates a lack of trading enthusiasm, which aligns with the declining trading volume we've observed. At these lower prices, it's clear that investors are reluctant to sell their holdings.
Other data points are also quite normal. There's no need to talk much about support levels since we're not even close to touching them. Especially on Monday, when the price dipped below $115,000 and then started rebounding, it was evident that investors found this level quite appealing.
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