Phyrex
Phyrex|Oct 04, 2025 20:52
My Token2049 events have officially wrapped up today. Tomorrow, I’m giving myself a day off to rest, and starting Monday, it’s back to serious work mode. My body’s pretty much recovered now, so tomorrow I can finally enjoy my first drink again. Gonna relax for one last day before diving back into analyzing how the shutdown impacts the market starting Monday. The geopolitical tensions aren’t just about Hamas—Russia’s side isn’t quiet either. Like I mentioned yesterday, I plan to close out the remaining 20% of my long positions before Monday. It’s not that I’m bearish on the upcoming market trends, but I’m not a fan of gambling, especially in areas where my knowledge doesn’t fully cover. A few of my major drawdowns in the past were due to greed. Trying out some detachment might actually be a good thing. If the market continues to perform well, I can always find opportunities to re-enter later. On a macro level, I’ve always been bullish on BTC, at least until 2028. Almost all my strategies revolve around this premise. The uncertainty for 2026 and 2027 is quite high, but I’m particularly looking forward to Q3 of 2026. For Q1 and Q2 of that year, I’m leaning more conservative for now. As for the last two months of 2025, I’ll continue to stay on the sidelines and observe. Back to Bitcoin data—weekend low liquidity has always been the best tool for relaxing. As long as there are no unexpected surprises, BTC is likely to see minor fluctuations, which means the major tokens shouldn’t face significant issues. So far, this seems to be the case. Looking at URPD data, the distribution of holdings remains very healthy. Yesterday, I mentioned that investor buying activity wasn’t very aggressive, but today we can see it gradually picking up. Who knows, maybe Monday will bring a new high. Honestly, I’m a bit torn—on one hand, I’m worried about potential risks on Monday, but on the other hand, it feels like a great opportunity for a breakout. Oh well, safety first. I think overcoming greed is pretty important. Sponsored by Bitget | @Bitget_zh
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