A few days ago, a friend asked me if I was going to enter a comprehensive bull market, but I thought for a long time and couldn't give an accurate answer. Because subjectively, I hope for a comprehensive bull market, and rationally, I have always believed that it has already risen so high without interest rate cuts. If a major interest rate cut comes, it will not take off? Especially when Powell leaves office next year and Trump gets the full financial power, he can't imagine how wonderful it will be. In the near future, there is also a macro information that needs special attention. The Federal Reserve may end its scale reduction. In the past few weeks, several key indicators in the Federal Reserve system have issued warnings almost simultaneously: 1. The widening interest rate spread between SOFR and IORB indicates that the cost of funds in the short-term financing market is becoming increasingly expensive, indicating that the system's liquidity is being rapidly drained. In history, whenever SOFR consistently exceeded the IORB limit, the Federal Reserve usually intervened early. The last time a similar situation occurred was on the eve of the Repo crisis in September 2019, when the Federal Reserve was forced to urgently stop reducing its balance sheet and restart repurchases. The critical threshold is when bank reserves fall below $3 trillion. Both 2019 and 2022 have been validated by the market: as long as it falls below this line, liquidity risk will rapidly amplify in the repurchase market. 3. The repurchase rate (TGCR) is temporarily higher than the reserve requirement rate (IORB), which means that the market would rather spend more costs borrowing cash than let funds lie in the central bank account - indicating that the "cash content" in the system has been drained. In other words, if we continue to shrink, we may 'collapse the system'. So the conclusion is very clear: it can't shrink anymore. Once the tapering reaches a critical point, the Federal Reserve can only stop tapering or even expand its balance sheet in reverse. The 'end of balance sheet contraction' is often the turning point signal of the US dollar liquidity cycle. The end of balance sheet contraction is a reversal signal for the US dollar liquidity cycle, and Bitcoin will be one of the earliest and most sensitive beneficiaries of this cycle. Powell, Bauman, and Waller have different views on hedging within the Federal Reserve, but the committee is already discussing the timing of ending the balance sheet contraction rather than whether it should continue. So we need to pay attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting that will be released at 2 am later, to see if there can be more details disclosed, especially with the current macroeconomic data of the US government shutdown. Is it a comprehensive bull market? Perhaps not yet, but this could be the eve of a comprehensive bull market.