25.10.20 Macro Market Analysis Good afternoon, brothers! A new week has begun. Will there be another big crash? Let’s analyze the current market through a few questions: (1) What’s the biggest risk right now? The biggest risk is Trump. He might escalate international conflicts and intensify trade wars. Additionally, millions of Americans are protesting against him, which threatens his rule. The U.S. government has been shut down for nearly 3 weeks without a solution, and the fierce infighting between Trump and the Democrats could lead to some negative impact. Also, yesterday, The New York Times published a report claiming that Trump is involved in corruption in the crypto space, causing a huge stir. The report stated that in the history of U.S. politics, no president has ever intertwined national power, personal branding, and financial speculation into a global-scale experiment like Trump has. Although the Department of Justice won’t prosecute a sitting president, this lays the groundwork for a future crash in the crypto market. If Trump falls, gets assassinated, or faces prosecution after leaving office, it could threaten crypto-friendly policies, causing instability and a market downturn. (2) Will BTC crash? A major crash is unlikely. The bottom is solid, and whales and big capital are still accumulating near their cost lines. During this round of decline, whales are continuing to buy in. (3) Will the market go up or down next? Although Trump is a major risk factor, from a cost perspective, there aren’t many profit-taking positions for BTC. The current cost of BTC is reasonable, so the probability of it going up is higher than going down. (4) When will the market recover? The crypto market just experienced the biggest crash in its 10-year history, and many people have lost everything. Confidence needs time to rebuild, and funds need time to recharge—whether it’s through salaries or borrowing money to invest. This process will take at least a month to start. (5) Can we buy the dip? What should we buy? I mentioned yesterday morning that you can buy the dip, but you need to accept the possibility that prices might continue to drop after buying. This is unavoidable—no one can perfectly time the bottom. Prioritize buying BTC, followed by BNB, ETH, and SOL. You can dollar-cost average daily and buy in batches. (6) Will there be another bull market? There won’t be a comprehensive bull market. BTC might still have a bull market, but altcoins won’t. There won’t be an altcoin season either. This analysis is just friendly advice. Adults need to take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing carries risks—please invest only with spare money and make independent judgments!