Why This Is the Bull-Bear Crossroads

The Karma Index, developed by @coinkarma_, is a mid-to-long-term cycle indicator used to observe where the market currently stands in its cycle. Historically, whenever the Karma Index drops below 35 (marked by the green boxes in the chart), it often signals an excellent buying opportunity during a bull market. In this bull cycle, the dates when the index fell below 35 were: 2024/1/23 2024/9/7 2025/3/2 2025/4/8 If it drops significantly below 35 and stays there, it’s usually a confirmation of a bear market. For example, in May 2022 (marked by the red box in the chart, after the LUNA crash), it was a classic confirmation of the early bear market. On 2025/10/18, BTC briefly hit $103K, and the Karma Index dropped below 35 again. This means we’re once again standing at the cycle’s turning point: If BTC can hold steady here and not break below the $100K level, the bull market might resume and hit new highs. If it continues to drop significantly, it’s highly likely we’re entering the bear market confirmation phase. So objectively speaking, we’re indeed at the bull-bear crossroads right now. Both bullish and bearish arguments make sense. From the sentiment on Twitter, I feel like this might be the point in the cycle where the players who’ve made their gains are choosing to exit in the largest numbers. Back in early March during the tariff war, some people also exited the market, but not as many as now. It’s understandable though—an event as big as 1011 could definitely reshape the overall market structure. However, due to the third bull peak in early October ($126K), we didn’t see any overheated data from the Karma Index above 80. (The two previous bull peaks in March 2024 and December 2024 both had readings above 80.) Plus, Bitfinex is still aggressively adding positions right now. So personally, I’m leaning slightly bullish. But if BTC fails to hold $100K, I’ll exit too—protecting gains is the priority.