Phyrex|Nov 04, 2025 10:33
Not sure how many of you still remember what I said before about the impact of general elections and midterm elections on risk markets. Based on statistics from 1950 to 2024, general elections and midterm elections are still favorable for risk markets. Although some of you mentioned that the markets were poor in 2018 and 2022, and midterm elections may not necessarily benefit the markets, from a macro perspective, both 2018 and 2022 were during the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycles.
If we exclude the impact of rate hikes, for example, in 2006, 2010, and 2014, the returns were pretty good. Looking ahead to the midterm elections in 2026, there's a high probability it will coincide with the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. Unless inflation rises significantly, the environment for the 2026 midterm elections should still be favorable.
As for the current downturn, I personally think the bigger possibility is due to liquidity shortages caused by the government shutdown. I'll provide a more detailed explanation of this issue in tomorrow's weekly report. Moreover, after the shutdown ends, it often brings positive stimulus to risk markets. I've already finished the framework for this part of the article, and it will be published tomorrow.
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