Base Case Update - On the cusp of a third 50% drawdown in the US stock market since 2000. Most major asset classes are underperforming gold in 2025. US stock market cap-to-GDP and the S&P 500 vs. the MSCI Ex-US index may have peaked near 2.4x -- the highest in about a century Cryptos led the way up -- and are likely leading the way back down. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index is down 1% in 2025 through Nov. 7, despite a 16% gain in the S&P 500. The ancient store of value, gold, is up the most on an yearly basis vs. the most significant industrial commodity, crude oil -- surpassing the 2008 disparity as crude continues to decline. A cryptocurrency that tracks nothing and faces unlimited competition -- Bitcoin -- is hovering near critical pivotal support around 100,000. A drop below could trigger cascading deflationary dominoes. Has there ever been more riding on prices in an asset class -- with unlimited supply -- staying lofty? I’m taking the under. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t4642cgq1zxw {BI COMD} #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket #bonds @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)