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DC大于C
DC大于C|11月 14, 2025 04:24
Brother Wu's post, highly recommended reading. We might still face some turbulence in the near future, so hang in there. Let me break down the timeline: even if the government reopens, there’s still a question mark over a rate cut in December because we don’t have October’s macro data as a guide right now. Plus, it’ll take some time for fiscal liquidity to flow after reopening—at least 1-2 weeks. So, starting from November 18 at the earliest. Then, the balance sheet reduction is expected to stop in early December, which should help boost market sentiment. Next, we’ll get November’s inflation data and labor market data: - December 5: Unemployment rate - December 10: CPI data And then the interest rate meeting will be at 3 AM on December 11. If there’s going to be a rate cut in December, it’ll depend on these two data points—whether inflation comes in lower than expected. If it does, there’s still time for a rate cut. But if it’s higher than expected, then it’s hard to say. So for now, it looks like we just have to hang in there, folks. Oh, and even if there’s a new chairperson, they’ll still need to rely on macro data for guidance.
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Timeline

12月 05, 00:43Analysis of Two Reasons for U's Sharp Decline
11月 24, 10:16The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points remains at 70%.
11月 22, 03:42Federal Reserve officials' remarks ease market panic.
11月 20, 09:13NVIDIA's earnings report exceeded expectations, driving the Nasdaq higher.
11月 12, 07:23Non-farm payroll and CPI data will be exciting
11月 05, 10:58The BTC market shows a clear downward trend with short-term fluctuations.
11月 04, 10:31General elections and midterm elections are favorable for risk markets
11月 03, 16:28Trump is preparing to release documents on extraterrestrial intelligent life.
11月 02, 10:03The market is becoming cautious about expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
11月 01, 16:28Trump refused to release employment data, causing a delay in the data.

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