Thinking about Bitcoin, moving averages, and trends... In uptrends, price is higher than it was in the past. That's why technicians and trend-followers (like me) use moving averages to provide evidence about the nature of a trend. Here are the rules: If price is above a moving average, the asset is likely in an uptrend. If that asset's short-term moving average is above a medium-term moving average, with the medium-term moving average above the long-term moving average, then that provides even more confirmation that the asset is in an uptrend. If the short, medium, and long-term moving averages have a positive slope, illustrating that the average price is rising, then its even more confirmation that the asset is in an uptrend. Yes, certain moving averages can also act as both dynamic support (within uptrends) and resistance (within downtrends). Additionally, if a key moving average (like the 200-day) fails to act as dynamic support and breaks down, that's a potential inflection point in the trend. The same is true in the inverse... if price is below a moving average (downtrend) and breaks above that moving average, then it's a potential shift back into an uptrend. So if we want to be objective, diagnose the trend, and then do everything we can to align with that trend, a variety of moving averages and their relationship to price (and each other) provides a clear solution to achieve that. This is Bitcoin with its 21, 55, 100, 200, and 365-day EMAs. • Price is below all of them • Shorter EMAs are crossing below longer EMAs • All of them have a negative slope All of these represent downtrend characteristics... ... for now. Being bullish during downtrends can work, but it inherently requires an investor to fight the trend. Some people are really good at that. I'm not one of them. So I'd rather align with trends. I'd rather look at the objective data. I'd rather wait for uptrend characteristics to return before getting bullish again. Once that happens, like it did in mid-April 2025, then I'll say that Bitcoin is back in an uptrend. Until then, objectively, it's in a downtrend.(Caleb Franzen)