Crypto 阿飞|Nov 18, 2025 00:03
A few days ago, I had dinner with a friend who works in macroeconomics, and he stopped me with just one sentence.
It's not that the funds don't understand Crypto, but they understand it too well.
He told me a real case: Last year, a popular chain launched a new narrative, and more than 20 funds queued up to enter. Upon examining the data on the chain, it appears that four associated wallets have been boosted; The same four also smashed the plate; Even the depth is like a script written, every second counts. The fund manager slammed the table directly in the conference room: How can I bring a billion dollars with this kind of market?
Later, they attempted a small-scale trial and placed orders worth 10 million US dollars in batches. As a result, the depth of the opening instantly deformed, and the price jumped up and down like it was locked by a radar. Finally, the internal conclusion of the fund is that it is not that they are not investing, but that no one is willing to be a counterparty.
My friend said: You think the price is ugly, but we think it's a warning sign that says you can't enter.
After he finished speaking, I suddenly understood why there were a lot of good news in the market this year, but the price remained unchanged: it's not that no one is optimistic, but that the money outside the market is simply not willing to come. They are afraid of being harvested clearly, afraid of being targeted for a large order, and afraid of being cut off if they buy it.
Even if there is a real interest rate cut in December, the money that can flow into Crypto is still extremely limited. Macro funds focus on mechanisms, transparency, and depth, not dreams.
We retail investors like to be moved by ourselves:
The opportunity has come! The cycle is about to change!
But professional funding only looks at one sentence:
Is this a market that can enter and exit on a large scale?
The action guide is just one sentence:
Don't imagine that foreign capital will carry the sedan chair for us.
What truly changes the market is not interest rate cuts, but whether the market itself can withstand the influx of big money.
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