This time, the chip concentration update is a bit late. Actually, on the 28th, I already saw it rise to 15.7%, but I didn’t expect the volatility to come so quickly... With BTC’s consecutive drops on the 29th and 30th, the concentration fell from 16% to 15%, but it’s still at a high level (including the impact of yesterday’s drop). In my opinion, high concentration means the probability of realized volatility (RV) being greater than implied volatility (IV) is increasing, but it doesn’t indicate direction. However, looking at similar past situations and their outcomes, there seems to be a pattern: 1. If price increases cause concentration to drop, it’s highly likely the upward trend will continue; 2. If price drops cause concentration to drop, it’s highly likely the downward trend will continue; In other words, if chip loosening results in profit-taking, it will continue to push upward; conversely, if chip loosening results in panic selling, it will continue to push downward. Not sure if this pattern will hold this time. Stay tuned, everyone!