Analysis: Oil prices, US bond yields, and Federal Reserve policies may dominate the next stage of Bitcoin's trend Odaily Planet Daily reported that analysts have stated that Bitcoin's next phase of trend is increasingly influenced by macro factors, including oil prices, US bond yields, and Federal Reserve monetary policy, rather than purely internal factors in the cryptocurrency market. After a large-scale deleveraging in the previous market, the leverage of the cryptocurrency derivatives market has significantly decreased, and the market structure has changed. Bitcoin is shifting from a "leverage driven pullback stage" to a "macro liquidity driven consolidation stage". In the context of decreased participation in derivatives, the market's sensitivity to the overall liquidity environment has significantly increased. Recently, the energy market has become a key variable. In the past three weeks, international oil prices have risen by about 80% from low to high. Against the backdrop of the escalation of the US Iran conflict, they once exceeded $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is usually accompanied by an increase in US real yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which tightens global liquidity and may limit the short-term upward space of risky assets. At the same time, rising energy prices will also push up inflation expectations. Due to the fact that energy accounts for approximately 9% of the CPI basket in developed economies, the sustained rise in oil prices may delay market expectations of interest rate cuts and maintain tight financial conditions. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin's recent performance and technology stocks has significantly increased, rather than traditional safe haven assets such as gold. （The Block）