The ceasefire period between the United States, Iran, and Lebanon is about to come. Did we agree on a price increase? Or has the conversation collapsed and fallen? It's actually not that simple. Whether the ceasefire in the Middle East can be continued, whether there is a play in the US Iran negotiations, and whether both sides are willing to stop have nothing to do with the "real chips" in Trump's hands, whether he is willing to let go and take them out. I have found that the current market is filled with extreme noise, either shouting 'the situation is about to jump off a cliff, confrontation is about to break out, oil prices will explode directly', or boasting 'once a ceasefire agreement is signed, the Middle East will be completely stable, just close your eyes and lay out'. To be honest, these judgments have not touched the root, they are just blindly making noise based on the news. Trump is now like a businessman holding a trump card, while Iran is a partner waiting for a return before signing. This round of negotiations is essentially a tug of war between the two, not a black-and-white "deal" or "breakdown". The current stalemate is actually quite simple. Trump's recent statement is very straightforward, talking to Iran and not touching on any money related matters. Translated into English, it means that Iran will not pay for its frozen assets overseas, will not lift sanctions against Iran, and will not even mention war reparations. There is only one demand: Iran will keep all its agents in the Middle East under control and obediently achieve a comprehensive ceasefire. The strait is unconditionally open, and we have to hand over our own nuclear materials. From Iran's perspective, this condition is purely a case of 'empty handed deception' and is impossible to accept. Iran has never intended to engage in a full-scale war with the United States in this round of game. Its core demand is particularly pure: to use the tension of the Middle East situation to force the United States to ease sanctions, retrieve frozen money, and alleviate domestic economic pressure - after all, after ten years of sanctions and conflict, Iran has accumulated losses of hundreds of billions of dollars, and it cannot bear to continue to consume it. Now Trump has directly blocked Iran's core demands, only allowing them to make unilateral concessions and refusing to budge. This negotiation premise, let alone a long-term ceasefire, cannot be sustained in the short term. But this does not mean that the negotiations between the United States and Iran have directly turned yellow, nor does it mean that once the ceasefire window period expires, a full-scale war will immediately break out. Trump's current "zero money" negotiation caliber is the first round of offer before the negotiation, not his final bottom line. Everyone who knows him well knows that as a businessman, his usual gameplay is to first raise the asking price to the highest, hold all the chips in his hands, and then relax a little bit when the situation changes. He has used this trick many times while giving candy and holding a stick. The core of this round of games has never been the zero sum game of "whether or not to negotiate", but rather the two-way tug of war between Trump and Iran, whether or not he is willing, and when he is willing, to put Iran's real concerns, such as asset unfreezing, sanctions easing, and war reparations, on the negotiating table. As long as these issues can enter the negotiation framework, even if it's just a small opening, such as unfreezing some assets for Iran's emergency response, Iran will have a reason to make concessions. Extending the ceasefire agreement or even a longer-term ceasefire framework is possible to be implemented. After all, neither of the two families has a pressing need for hard work at the moment, and neither wants to really escalate the situation. On the US side, the election is getting closer and closer, and Trump is now focusing all his energy on the campaign. He doesn't want to drag the US back into the quagmire of war in the Middle East and scatter his votes at this point; On the Iranian side, the domestic economy is already suffocated by sanctions, and there is no motivation to waste national strength in endless proxy conflicts without any substantial returns. So to put it simply, both sides are now in the ceasefire window, testing each other's bottom line. You step back and I'll compromise a bit, pulling and finding a balance point that both sides can accept. This is the essence of the current situation. Keeping a close eye on Trump's negotiating tone, whether there will be any looseness on "money related issues" - such as whether there is any mention of "asset unfreezing" or "loosening of sanctions", even if it only implies that "relevant matters can be negotiated", is a signal. Don't chase extreme news. This round of situation is mainly driven by tension, and extreme unilateral market trends are difficult to occur. Blindly following the trend will only result in losses. Don't bet on a single outcome: don't bet on 'negotiations will come to an end' or 'ceasefire will collapse', approach it with probability thinking, and don't bet heavily on direction. Don't guess the news. As long as Trump doesn't slack off on talking about "real gold and silver", don't easily buy at the bottom or chase after high prices. Wait for clear signals to appear before taking action, which is much more reliable than guessing blindly. In the short term, the situation will not experience the extreme unilateral escalation that everyone is worried about. Instead, there will be more back and forth negotiations between the negotiating table and the market, and the market will follow this pulling process, repeatedly trading with poor expectations - this is also an opportunity we can seize in the future. I am still optimistic that Trump will send a signal to Iran to raise conditions before the end of the ceasefire period to extend the ceasefire period. US-Iran