Why did Trump launch escort at this time? Personally, the negotiation terms have made significant progress, while Trump wants more. At this point, it is actually necessary to carefully examine the differences between the latest negotiation plan proposed by Iran yesterday (later referred to as the May 3rd plan) and the plan proposed on the 27th (later referred to as the April 27th plan). In fact, there have been significant changes, and it can be said that Iran has made significant concessions compared to the April 27th plan. Last night here https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/20509695559931506823? S=20 has talked before, let's reorganize: 1) From strict sequential phased negotiations to a greater emphasis on holistic packaging solutions April 27th edition: https://(((x.com))/qinba frank/status/204860769456796767? S=20 is a strict three-stage pattern, and strictly following the protocol in the previous stage is a prerequisite for the subsequent stage. Although the May 3rd plan retains the three-stage structure, it emphasizes the overall packaging solution and is no longer a completely rigid "the previous stage must be fully implemented before entering the next stage". If you have any impression, the earliest proposal put forward by the United States was to package the solution as a whole, rather than discussing it in stages. 2) Discussion on the Strait of Hormuz The April 27th version was discussed in the second phase and will only be negotiated after the United States completely terminates the war and provides security guarantees. At that time, Iran's plan was to establish a new legal system and framework for managing the strait. But in yesterday's May 3rd version, the first phase was already mentioned, which is to gradually lift the blockade on Iranian ports in a way that is compatible with the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranian side is responsible for clearing mines. This is an important concession from Iran: it no longer demands that the United States "lift the blockade first and then talk about opening up", but instead moves synchronously or Iran takes action first (to show sincerity in dealing with mines). 3) Regarding the nuclear issue On April 27th, Iran discussed the nuclear issue in the third stage In yesterday's May 3rd version, Iran agreed to discuss its nuclear program in negotiations with the United States - Tehran proposed limiting uranium enrichment levels to 3.5%, far below weapon grade - and Iran also proposed gradually reducing its existing enriched uranium stockpile. And it also agreed to discuss the complete cessation of uranium enrichment within a maximum period of 15 years, and to resume uranium enrichment activities in accordance with the zero inventory principle on the Iranian side after the specified deadline expires. If you still remember the negotiations with Pakistan in mid April, at that time https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2043884447582564655? The United States proposes a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment: not permanent zero enrichment, nor permanent dismantling of all capabilities, but a 20-year suspension. And Iran agreed to a suspension of several years (about five years). At that time, the United States had already given up on completely abandoning Iran's nuclear program, and instead had a long-term pause, with Iran only agreeing to a short-term pause. In the Iranian version released on May 3rd yesterday, it is evident that Iran has agreed to a 15 year suspension of uranium enrichment, which is approaching the deadline proposed by the United States. Why has Iran undergone such a significant transformation? Last night's tweet discussed: 1) Last week, Trump wrote a letter to the Congress, announcing that "the hostilities with Iran have ended", which was considered to circumvent the deadline of the war authorization on May 1, but later added that he would not "withdraw prematurely and let the problem reappear three years later". Obtained greater freedom in action; 2) Continuing to block Iranian ports, the drawbacks for Iran have become apparent, with oil storage facilities almost full (onshore storage and Iranian cruise ship storage in the Persian Gulf), while the Ministry of Finance continues to intensify sanctions (designating bank networks, freezing cryptocurrencies). https://((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/2043326170750701849? S=20 blockade is indeed a clever move. Bold speculation suggests that Iran may have felt pressure internally, which comes from three sources: Firstly, the bombing and strikes in March also consumed a huge amount of its strength, and priority needs to be given to stopping the bleeding; Secondly, during the April ceasefire, the US military has been replenishing ammunition and has also approved multiple arms sales to Israel and Gulf countries. Especially with the arrival of the Bush Carrier Strike Group in the Middle East, it is equivalent to having a stronger US military presence in the Middle East than in March. Although it was also a dual carrier battle group in March, the Ford had already exceeded its deployment time and had two issues, which did not provide much combat power. And this time, the Bush has just been repaired and deployed to the Arabian Sea, so its combat effectiveness is naturally stronger. Thirdly, the nearly two-week blockade has had a significant impact on Iran's oil exports and is currently the main source of Iran's economy, especially with IRGC's funding mainly relying on oil exports. So from a personal perspective, IRGC should feel these pressures internally, and if we continue to be tough, the blood loss will increase. A few days ago, I watched a frontline program on Phoenix TV in Tehran, reporting that a regular banana in the Tehran market costs about 100000 tuman (about 0.7 US dollars). The monthly salary of grassroots public officials is roughly around 28-30 million riyals (the official minimum wage has been raised to about 17 million riyals per month, equivalent to less than 100 US dollars). According to this calculation, a civil servant's monthly salary is only enough to buy about 200-285 bananas - equivalent to "more than ten rows of fruit plates", which cannot support family expenses at all. In the long run, the stability of internal political power will become a major issue. Why does Trump want more? We want Iran to first engage in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, suspend uranium enrichment for 20 years instead of 15 years, and make further concessions on compensation issues. Trump's core strategy should still be to shout, test, watch Iran's reaction, exert extreme pressure, cut sausages, and slowly force Iran to make further concessions in order to achieve the decent results he hopes. This is just a personal observation and reflection, for reference only. We also need to continue observing Iran's reaction in the past two days