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Waking up to see the market was shocking; Bitcoin started to plunge in the early hours. As of the time I’m writing this analysis, it has already touched the old support line at 115.3K, which can be considered the lower edge of the sideways trading range.

The key point has arrived; next, it will either be a false breakdown to wash out some traders before pulling back up, or it will not play around and directly break down towards 112K, or even lower, with 113.4K and 110K as backup levels.

At this stage, there’s just one word: wait. We need to see if there’s strong buying pressure to push it back up. If there is, it would indicate a trap for short sellers and a preparation for a rally. If there’s no movement, it basically means it will continue to drop. Traders looking to enter in this market need to be cautious.

I took a quick look at the capital flow, and Bitcoin is indeed bleeding quite severely. There’s a net outflow of funds, and the market is extremely cold. So, I decided to take a small short position on Ethereum; the logic is simple: Bitcoin is going down, and Ethereum has been moving sideways, so it usually tends to catch up with the drop.

Back to the market, if you think about it, this bull market wave in July looks like a result of the market anticipating a rate cut ahead of time. It’s hard to say if there won’t be a cut; even if there is, the positive effect has likely been fully priced in. Plus, since the early hours, Bitcoin has been on a one-way plunge, while altcoins have already started to withdraw.

Not to mention the external pressure from U.S. monetary policy, with Powell and Yellen continuing their performance. Powell is kindly patting Yellen on the shoulder saying, “You’d better cut rates,” while also engaging in legal maneuvers to have supporters sue the Federal Reserve for lack of transparency, nitpicking.

Powell doesn’t want to go along with it, fearing he’ll take the blame if rates are actually cut. Isn’t that funny? One wants to be re-elected, and the other wants to retire without taking the blame, yet both are being grilled.

Additionally, it’s worth mentioning that after each major drop, the U.S. dollar index tends to spike. Then Bitcoin starts to drop, followed by a rebound. If you look at history, it’s always been this back-and-forth.

Bitcoin is essentially a monetary phenomenon; it feeds off economic cycles and drinks from the soup of policy expectations. Whether this time will repeat the past, I don’t know, but I bet it won’t be like the previous rounds with a 70% bear market in a year; that’s too difficult.

I’m more inclined to think that after this round of correction ends, the dollar index will drop again, and then Bitcoin will welcome its final surge to the top. After all, on March 4, 2025, Bitcoin hit a low of 82K, while the dollar index just broke 106.

Many people think the bull market is over, but what happened later? Didn’t they all get slapped in the face? The market is so realistic, with a terrible memory; emotions come quickly and leave just as fast…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 117400

First Resistance Level: 116400

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 115000

First Support Level: 113800

The short-term key support at 115K to 115.2K is currently the most important support range. If it stabilizes, it will build a bottom. If it breaks below 115K, the short-term downward space will open up, with the first target being 113.8K.

We are currently in a consolidation phase after a large bearish candle. During the day, we can pay attention to whether there is a lower shadow line appearing. In the ultra-short term, we might see a rebound, and after the rebound, we should watch if the price can regain the 120-day moving average on the 4-hour chart. A small bullish candle has formed, and we can consider 115.3K as short-term support.

The first resistance at 116.4K is the lower edge of the previous consolidation range, which has now turned into a resistance level. If a rebound occurs, it must break through this level to reverse the expectation to bullish.

If the rebound is strong, it may challenge the second resistance at 117.4K. However, this area is prone to new selling pressure and can be used as a short-term reduction or defense point.

The first support at 115K is today’s key support line; the price can only stabilize if it holds this line. If it breaks below, the short-term downward risk will continue to rise.

Once 115K is lost, the second support at 113.8K will be the next target for a downward probe. Currently, we still mainly refer to the psychological support range of 114K to 115K.

7.25 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in batches in the 103800-115000 range, Target: 116400-117400

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they “always catch the top and bottom,” but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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