Good morning, crypto friends! I am Wang Yibo. Today is Tuesday, July 29, 2025. As a new day begins, let us focus on the real-time hotspots in the crypto world and explore potential trading opportunities. Iron fans, remember to check in and like, wishing everyone a bountiful harvest in the market!

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Related Market Dynamics: The Impact of U.S. Stocks and Federal Reserve Policies

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The performance of U.S. stocks on Monday showed a certain degree of divergence, with the Dow Jones initially down 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 index slightly rising. In the tech sector, Nvidia rose nearly 2%, Tesla increased by 3%, and AMD surged by 10%, which somewhat boosted the market's risk appetite.

The expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have always been a significant factor influencing various markets, including the crypto space. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 96.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 3.1%; the probability of maintaining rates in September is 35.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 62.6%. Changes in these interest rate expectations can affect the flow of market funds. Generally speaking, an increase in rate cut expectations tends to enhance the market's preference for risk assets, which could be a significant positive signal for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the high probability of maintaining rates in the short term also keeps the market relatively cautious.

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Bitcoin Market: Volatile Adjustment After Failed Surge

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Bitcoin's market performance on Monday can be described as a rise followed by a decline. The bullish outlook we provided in the morning was confirmed by the market, although the increase was relatively small. Bitcoin's attempt to break the 120,000 mark failed again, stopping at a high of 119,750 before facing downward pressure, and subsequently, under the dominance of bears, it fell to a low of 117,334.

Structurally, Bitcoin is still in a phase of volatile recovery. We should view the space and intensity of this pullback as a corrective pattern. The daily contraction combined with the monthly close indicates a strong market correction sentiment. The four-hour chart shows a clear trend of volatile downward testing and recovery, while the hourly chart has not seen a significant drop after being blocked at high levels, indicating signs of short-term strength building for a bullish reversal. Overall, the pattern is maintained through volatility, and in terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on going long around the low points of the volatility. If the high points cannot break through, then consider going short.

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Ethereum Market: Normal Pullback Amidst Strength

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Ethereum has maintained a strong posture recently, and on Monday, it once again refreshed its short-term high, facing pressure and retreating after reaching a high of 3,941. In the evening, the bears intensified their efforts, deepening the adjustment, with the current low at 3,753.

Recently, Ethereum has been on a strong upward trajectory, during which it also experienced a pullback correction, touching a low of 3,500. After this effective pullback correction, the market may develop a pattern of higher highs and pullbacks moving upward. Yesterday, Ethereum set a new recent high again, and such a level of probing high followed by a retreat is a normal adjustment pattern. From the four-hour chart, after a series of bullish candles, a series of bearish candles followed, and it is now back near the middle Bollinger band. Typically, in cases of volume increase during a rise accompanied by top adjustments, we can pay attention to the continuation of the bulls. In the morning, it is suggested to initially follow the bullish trend for a rebound recovery, and later consider following the bullish trend based on the strength of the continuation.

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If you are feeling lost—unable to understand technicals, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, confused about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing losses. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

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