Today, after finishing the investment essay written by Liang Ruian, I gained a lot.

As the saying goes: A general on the road does not chase small rabbits.

In the investment market, focus on the big and let go of the small, seizing core opportunities from three perspectives to find different certainty opportunities: trading cycles, sector rotation, and market switching (between cryptocurrencies and stocks).

In the market, our core focus should still be on [earning money through cycles]. The cycle is where the big money lies. For instance, currently, #BTC is at $120,000, while at the beginning of 2023, #BTC was at $20,000. The cycle and odds are completely different. Near the peak of the cycle, we would rather compress our positions and create a sufficient safety cushion to prepare our principal for the next new cycle, which is the best strategy.

In a major cycle, there is often sector rotation. Previously, we could see a major surge in Bitcoin followed by a consolidation phase, leading to the emergence of meme coins—AI coins—public chains—ecosystem coins. This transmission mechanism is what we call sector rotation. The advantage of capturing rotation in a major cycle is the 'sufficiently high margin of error.' However, at the peak of the cycle, we should focus on the big and let go of the small, prioritizing liquidity as the fundamental guarantee for safety.

Market switching between cryptocurrencies and stocks often has a time lag; the U.S. stock market and Hong Kong stock market (A-shares) also have a time lag. Many people may not engage in commodity futures, but there is also a time lag between commodity cycles and stock cycles. Therefore, selecting the corresponding market for investment during different time lags is also very important. For example, the past three years have been a bull market for Chinese bonds, and bond-like stocks have also performed well, such as Yangtze Power, etc. Thus, many times it is not that we made a mistake in our investment, but rather that we misjudged the cycle of the selected market.

Therefore, the core thinking of "a general on the road does not chase small rabbits" is to focus on the big and let go of the small, with a core emphasis on cycles. Under the correct cycle context, capture sector rotation. When the cycle is incorrect, switch markets, and through the adjustment of market cycles, reasonably transition to the correct cycle, participate in it, and go with the flow—this is what makes a hero!

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