Zongheng Freely: The market continues to fluctuate, can we expect a pullback to occur again as anticipated?

CN
2 days ago

Everyone is not exactly as we see them. Before standing in front of our dreams, we have all stumbled; after facing reality, we may hide away. In fact, we are all the same. When we are tired, there are people we can rely on. Every time we strive to show strength, almost to the point of being stubborn, it is just to believe that we can!

Yesterday's market trend ultimately belonged to a small area of fluctuation, which was quite similar to our expectations. It first showed a trend of fluctuating rebound, reaching above the expected 115500. This allowed our low position long order at 113000 from the day before to successfully hit the target position, and we also completed the layout for short orders again. As of now, the market has retreated from the high point near 115700 to around 114500, and our short orders are once again in profit. Have you noticed that in many recent operations, we have been very accurate in grasping the points and trend space? Especially in this weak fluctuating trend, we have been able to perfectly grasp multiple operations. Therefore, in our operations, we first determine an overall trend, and then, by analyzing liquidity distribution and market structure, we can make our operations more rational, which greatly enhances our grasp of the trend.

Returning to today's market, after digesting yesterday's market, the large amount of long and short liquidity that had originally gathered in the liquidity distribution has changed. After the rebound, part of the short-term liquidity above has been cleared, which means that the intensity of clearing the long liquidity below is now greater. Currently, the clearing of long liquidity below is mainly around 112600. If a continuous clearing market is triggered, we will see new low points below. Meanwhile, there is also some clearing intensity for short liquidity around 116500, but it is less than the short-term long liquidity. Overall, the liquidity distribution has decreased somewhat compared to yesterday, which should also be a reason for the liquidation of both long and short positions in the fluctuating market. According to the current fluctuating trend, it is clear that downward clearing has a better cost-performance ratio. It is important to note that during yesterday's rebound, the spot premium has strengthened, indicating that buying intentions have begun to emerge from the spot market. If we can clear the long positions below and provide a better position, the buying sentiment is likely to increase significantly, and there may be many opportunities then.

On the technical side, there is basically no significant difference from yesterday at the daily level. The K-line has formed a bullish line, and the line has risen above the MA7 line. Currently, the pullback has a retracement action to the MA7 line. The ideal scenario here is to have a downward probe and then quickly recover, which may lead to an expectation of a bullish cycle at the daily level. If it cannot continue to hold above, it will take longer for the daily level to return to the bullish cycle. On the four-hour chart, there are still some changes. Following yesterday's rise, the market has formed two high points around 115700 on the four-hour structure. With today's pullback, the double top pattern is becoming more apparent, and structurally, a bearish cross K-line has appeared at the rebound high, indicating that we still lean towards a bearish outlook for the current four-hour market. Meanwhile, on the technical indicators, the volume bars of the bullish cycle are converging, indicating an expectation of entering a bearish phase. We should continue to wait for the market to move out first.

In terms of operations, the short orders follow the old rules, and we have set a stop-loss position for reducing positions. Currently, there is no major trend in the market; it is more of a weak fluctuation. Therefore, our operational thinking does not need to change significantly. In the short term, we can consider a short long position when first touching around 112600, and if the rebound reaches 116500, we can short there. If the market shows new changes today, we will arrange according to real-time market conditions. Currently, the overall thinking is still mainly bearish, with short longs only for betting on rebounds.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article has been reviewed and published, and the market changes in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Everyone is welcome to contact and discuss the market.】

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