Where Does Bitcoin Go From Here? Global M2 Offers a Clue.

Historically, shifts in M2 have preceded significant moves in BTC, often with a lag of several weeks. When the global money supply expands, it creates a tailwind for risk assets and vice versa.

Looking at the current data, a pattern is emerging.

The latest M2 figures suggest a liquidity peak is forming in September, with data showing M2 has already started to roll over from its recent highs.

In the past, such peaks have preceded multi-week slowdowns in BTC performance, especially when paired with policy tightening or large Treasury issuance.

This signals that overall liquidity conditions are set to weaken heading into the fall, a trend that aligns with the anticipated liquidity drain from the U.S. Treasury's upcoming TGA refill.

While not a guarantee of future action, this precedent highlights a potential shift in the macro environment. For now, the flow of global money remains a critical indicator to watch.

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