Bitcoin experienced a flash crash in the early morning, erasing all gains from Powell's speech, and the lowest spike reached 110680. Currently, it is still near the bottom of the spike with a very weak rebound, and it has also broken below the previous box bottom of 111920. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether this will accelerate the opening of downward space. There is one last drop before the interest rate cut in September.
Ethereum surged to a high of 4956, but similarly dropped in the early morning, with a daytime low of 4520. It also showed a second top retest during the day. There is a pattern here: every time Bitcoin drops, funds flow into Ethereum and altcoins. In such times, caution is needed, but currently, Ethereum still appears to be strong, though it should follow Bitcoin's trend.
The BTC Dominance index showed spikes up and down on the daily chart, and it has reached the previous support level above 50%. There is a chance for a rebound here, but the height of the rebound is currently uncertain, and there is still a trend of continued decline.
The three major U.S. stock indices saw the Dow Jones finally break through its historical high, while the other two indices have been oscillating above their new highs. The S&P 500 index futures showed a decline before the market opened, and all three indices opened lower. Therefore, the movement of U.S. stocks is currently consistent with the prediction made by the analyst on the 19th, indicating that after the oscillation, there is still a chance for new highs.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin broke below the M-top with a lowest spike of 110680, erasing all the gains from Powell's positive remarks on the evening of the 22nd. Currently, it remains bearish. Moving forward, we need to pay attention to whether it can return above 118,600; if it cannot, the risk of further declines cannot be eliminated. From my current perspective, the recovery period has been extended, and the next key support level is 100,000.
Since the rise from 15400 in 2022, every segment of the increase has tested the previous high's important support but has not completely fallen below it. The current test is also of the support from the high point broken between the end of 2024 and July 2025. From the analyst's perspective, I still hope it will repeatedly test this support, with a false breakdown followed by a rebound, as this would be the most efficient and cost-effective movement; otherwise, the adjustment time will be prolonged.
Support: 100000 to 106000
Resistance: 114500 to 117200
Ethereum
After reaching a new high on the daily chart, Ethereum dropped back, and the MACD also showed a top divergence. Therefore, it is currently not suitable to chase highs; after a correction, there will still be opportunities to enter. The support below is at 4400 to 4060. If Bitcoin drops sharply, we will consider adding positions around 3600 to 3800.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded close to the Fibonacci 0.382 level, and this rebound has been quite good, rising 144% from the lowest point of 0.01766 to the current 0.04327. If a correction occurs later, it will not be small, so caution is needed. Yesterday, the analyst also mentioned a similar situation to January 2021 when Bitcoin surged to 64,800, increasing by about 1.2 times, while Ethereum rose from 950 to over 4300, nearly 3.6 times.
However, this premise is that Bitcoin must also hold its support and rebound upwards to create conditions for Ethereum and altcoins.
Support: 4060 to 4400
Resistance: 4788 to 4956
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Analyst Fusu
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