The cryptocurrency market has experienced multiple typical cycles of "bubble - crash - recovery - takeoff." Each cycle often starts with structural changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as loose policies, breakthroughs in emerging technologies, or crises of trust in the financial system. In the current situation, Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook may become an important catalyst for triggering a new round of the cryptocurrency market cycle.
On August 26, 2025, local time, Trump announced the "immediate" removal of Lisa Cook from her position, citing allegations of "mortgage fraud." However, Cook does not acknowledge the allegations and has initiated legal proceedings to contest them. This move breaks the Federal Reserve's practical independence since 1951 and raises market concerns about political interference in central banking.
Although the stock market reacted relatively calmly, signals such as a weakening dollar, a steepening long-term Treasury yield curve, and rising gold prices indicate that the market is re-pricing policy risk premiums. Meanwhile, hard assets like Bitcoin quickly rebounded after facing selling pressure in the short term, with market participants increasingly viewing them as tools for hedging against inflation and seeking safety.
Expectations of policy easing and a reassessment of cryptocurrency value: Trump aims to control the Federal Reserve to push for more interest rate cuts to align with his economic policy layout. Expectations of rate cuts will lower nominal interest rates and enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets (such as Bitcoin and gold). At this time, the value of crypto assets will receive confirmatory feedback, forming a preference overflow in the early stages.
The lack of institutional trust triggers a rush for hard assets: If political interference in the central bank continues, it will weaken expectations of institutional stability. Compared to the traditional financial system, the decentralized nature of the crypto system and its attributes outside the financial system make it more attractive in an era of distrust. This logic is often triggered in "safe-haven - refuge" cycles.
"Fiscal-dominated currency" driven by policy goals propels the crypto cycle: If Trump successfully shifts the Federal Reserve to a "fiscal-dominated" model, money creation may be enhanced alongside fiscal expansion. In this context, investors looking to preserve or increase value amid inflation and dollar depreciation risks are more likely to bet on crypto assets, driving a new upward cycle.
Short-term response: The market will experience a rhythm of "panic - reassessment - early rise." Even if Cook is temporarily retained, her lawsuit will bring ongoing uncertainty, and in the short term, crypto assets may initially fall before rising.
Mid-term trend: If Trump continues to apply pressure or successfully influences more Federal Reserve decision-makers, the crypto market may enter a rising phase characterized by "institutional safe-haven - strengthened policy expectations - capital inflow."
Risk warning: If political interference leads to the destruction of the rule of law or a collapse of market confidence, it will generate macro risks. Although the crypto market may be seen as a safe-haven vehicle, if overall market credit is damaged, risk assets as a whole may suffer, necessitating caution against liquidity exhaustion and systemic sell-offs.
Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook marks a potential new phase of uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy. For the crypto market, this is not only an opportunity for short-term safe-haven trading but may also give rise to a new value cycle. However, it is important to emphasize that such rises are underpinned by a crisis of policy and institutional trust, and participants should be wary of tail risks brought about by macro-political changes.
Related: Solana developers charged $5,000 for a single query on Google Cloud BigQuery
Original article: “Federal Reserve Independence Under Pressure, Crypto Assets May Find New Cycle Opportunity”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
