Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency market and seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, September 5, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀️ Die-hard fans check in 👍 Like to make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹

【U.S. Stock Market Performance】

The U.S. stock market showed a positive trend during Thursday's trading session, with all three major indices closing higher. A weak ADP private employment report has led investors to become increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve has sufficient reason to cut interest rates at the September meeting. This expectation has injected upward momentum into the market, while the focus is gradually shifting to the non-farm payroll data for August, which will be released on Friday. Closing data showed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a significant increase, rising by 350.06 points, or 0.77%, to close at 45,621.29 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index performed strongly, rising by 209.97 points, or 0.98%, to close at 21,707.69 points; the S&P 500 Index also achieved an increase, rising by 53.82 points, or 0.83%, to close at 6,502.08 points.

In terms of individual stock performance, Amazon's stock price closed significantly higher, up 4.29%. The reason for the increase is that Barclays released an analysis stating that if Amazon can continue its partnership with the AI startup Anthropic, its AWS business is expected to accelerate growth again in the fourth quarter. Amid the intertwining effects of various economic data and corporate dynamics, the market is currently highly focused on the upcoming significant non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday. According to a Dow Jones survey of economists, the U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 75,000 last month. The release of this data is bound to trigger significant market volatility again, and investors are on high alert, hoping to capture new investment opportunities and directions.

【Impact of Employment Data and Non-Farm Payroll Preview】

The ADP data for August, released yesterday, fell short of expectations, with private sector employment increasing by 54,000, about half of last month's increase. This data indicates that the job market is gradually cooling, with a decrease in job vacancies and a slowdown in wage growth. As a result, due to concerns about further weakness in the job market, Federal Reserve officials are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at this month's meeting. Following the release of the ADP data, traders maintained these bets. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4%; the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 0.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 44.5% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 55.3%.

It is important to note that the significant non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. The non-farm payroll data is traditionally a "bombshell" for the financial market, reflecting the employment situation in the U.S. non-agricultural sector and serving as an important indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, which has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially on the overall market. Generally speaking, if the non-farm payroll data is strong, it indicates good economic performance, which may trigger expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, leading funds to flow more towards low-risk, high-yield traditional financial instruments, which is unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and may put pressure on the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin; conversely, if the data is weak, indicating economic weakness, it may trigger expectations of loose monetary policy, leading investors to seek high-return risk assets, potentially increasing demand for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, all crypto friends must pay attention to me to grasp real-time dynamics and not miss any key information.

【Bitcoin Market Analysis: Tug of War Between Bulls and Bears, Bulls Gaining Strength】

Having discussed the macro market background, let's focus on the price trend of Bitcoin. Bitcoin encountered resistance around 112,128 in the early session and fell back, dipping to a low of 110,310, followed by a slight rebound. However, in the evening, the bears exerted pressure, causing the price to drop again to 109,288 before temporarily stabilizing. In the early session, it rose above 111,500 and continued its upward trend. The current market shows a slight tug of war between bulls and bears, with both sides fiercely competing for dominance around short-term levels, resulting in slight fluctuations within a narrow range.

From the perspective of volume changes, we can see that bullish momentum is gradually strengthening. During the price fluctuations, the trading volume during upward movements has significantly increased compared to before, indicating that more funds are flowing into the market to buy Bitcoin, and the buying power is continuously enhancing its dominance over the market. This trend reflects positive changes within the market, suggesting that bullish sentiment is gradually consolidating. When more and more investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's future trend and are willing to invest funds, it creates an upward force that drives prices further up. Based on past market experience, when bullish momentum continues to strengthen and market sentiment turns optimistic, it often triggers a relatively strong upward trend. Therefore, considering the current trend and volume analysis, the probability of the subsequent market continuing its upward trend has further increased.

In terms of operations, it is recommended that crypto friends consider placing long positions when the price retraces to key support levels, such as the 110,000 - 110,500 range, and set reasonable stop-loss levels, such as 109,500, to control risk. If the price continues to rise, the upper resistance range to focus on first is 113,000 - 113,500. If it can effectively break through, it is expected to further open up upward space.

【Ethereum Market Analysis: Rebound After Correction, Bulls in Control】

Now let's look at Ethereum's performance. Ethereum also started a correction from the high of 4,480, first dipping to 4,354 before experiencing a technical rebound, but the rebound was limited, reaching a maximum of only 4,433, and then falling back again to a daily low of 4,264 before rebounding, currently located at 4,350 continuing the rebound. Yesterday, Ethereum showed a phased downward trend, but during the decline, a platform buffer appeared, significantly easing the downward pressure throughout the day.

In the short term, Ethereum's trend also maintains an upward trajectory. From the perspective of the moving average system, each small correction presents an opportunity for bulls to enter, with the moving averages showing a bullish arrangement, and the short-term moving averages providing effective support for the price, indicating that bulls hold an absolute advantage in the short term. When the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, it indicates that short-term, medium-term, and long-term investors in the market are generally optimistic about the asset and are willing to buy at higher prices, creating an upward force. This arrangement also reflects the market's positive sentiment and the continuous inflow of funds, providing a solid foundation for price increases.

For subsequent operations, it is recommended that crypto friends focus on the lower support area to place long positions and capture potential rebound opportunities. The key support levels to watch below are in the 4,300 - 4,320 range. If the price retraces to this range and shows clear signs of stopping the decline, such as long lower shadow candlesticks or bottom reversal patterns, consider lightly entering long positions, with stop-loss levels set below 4,280. The upper resistance level to focus on first is in the 4,450 - 4,480 range. If it can break through this resistance level, it is expected to further explore the 4,550 - 4,600 area.

【September Cryptocurrency Market Hotspots and Future Outlook】

Looking ahead to September, the cryptocurrency market is full of hotspots, with many key events set to profoundly impact market direction. From a macro perspective, the non-farm payroll data on September 5, the U.S. CPI data on September 11, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17 are core anchors that determine market expectations. Powell's speech and interest rate cut expectations will directly affect the U.S. dollar and stock market, thereby having a far-reaching impact on the cryptocurrency market.

In terms of exclusive catalysts for the crypto market, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, steadily boosting market liquidity, and their stabilizing and driving effects on the market are becoming increasingly significant. The approval expectations for Ethereum ETFs are heating up, with market rumors suggesting that regulators may allow a new round of ETH ETFs, potentially involving staking and custody mechanisms. Once Ethereum ETFs are approved, it will bring new capital and attention to the Ethereum market, further enhancing Ethereum's position and influence in the cryptocurrency market.

Particularly noteworthy is the WLFI project, which completed a token issuance of over $2.2 billion on September 1. As a decentralized finance project publicly supported by the Trump family, WLFI has been full of topics and controversies since its inception. The unlocking and listing of its tokens have attracted widespread market attention, with the unlocking event starting on September 1 on the Ethereum chain, where early investors purchased tokens at a price of 0.05 during the presale, with 20% of these tokens being unlocked this time. In terms of market impact expectations, there are two completely different scenarios. The bearish scenario suggests that early investors have a very low cost and significant profit potential, which may trigger a strong desire to take profits; many early investors may have hedged through derivatives, weakening their reluctance to sell; and the long incubation period from project conception to launch may create a "good news fully priced in" mentality, all of which could lead to price pressure. Conversely, the bullish scenario points out that the initial circulating market value is relatively controllable, making it easier for prices to be driven by capital; Trump's endorsement and expectations for promotion, as well as expectations for capturing ecological value, may support price increases.

Additionally, September also welcomes a wave of token unlocks, with projects like Arbitrum, SUI, and Jupiter releasing over $1 billion in tokens, which may bring selling pressure in the short term and exert downward pressure on the prices of related projects. Overall, September in the cryptocurrency market is filled with uncertainty and opportunities, and investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and make cautious investment decisions.

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