This week, the opening price was 111,144, with a low of 110,624 on Monday and a high of 116,805 on Friday, ultimately closing at 115,342. The weekly increase was 3.78%, with a maximum fluctuation of 5.59% and a transaction amount of 10.064 billion USD. This week ended with a bullish candle, and the coin price closed below the 10-week moving average.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:
Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart:
In the last weekly review, I predicted:
Bitcoin has entered a bearish market at both the weekly and daily levels, with subsequent trends focusing on shorting at highs.
Next week, Bitcoin will have a rebound period of 3 to 6 days, after which the coin price will continue to fluctuate downwards.
Resistance levels: The first resistance level is around 113,500, and the strong resistance level is around 115,000.
Support levels: The first support level is around 105,300, and the strong support level is around 98,000 to 100,500.
The operational strategy I provided in the last weekly review is:
Medium-term position: A 30% short position has been established, and this week will gradually increase the position.
Short-term position: Set stop-loss points, focusing on shorting at highs. (Using 1 hour as the operating cycle)
① Hold the short positions bought in the 112,000 to 113,500 range last week, and when this week's market rebounds to the 114,000 to 115,000 range, increase the short position. The stop-loss for both entries is set just above 115,000;
② When the coin price drops to around 105,300 to 107,000 and shows bottom signals, sell half of the held short positions, moving the take-profit level down to 110,000;
③ If the coin price breaks below the 105,300 to 107,000 range, move the take-profit level down to 107,000;
④ When the coin price drops to around 100,000, sell all held short positions.
Review of this week's actual performance:
On Monday, Bitcoin opened at 111,144 and adjusted downwards, touching this week's low of 110,624 before starting to rebound, closing with a 0.86% increase; on Tuesday, it fluctuated around 112,000, closing with a 0.51% decrease and a candlestick with upper and lower shadows;
From Wednesday to Friday, the coin price rebounded for three consecutive days, with the strength of the bullish candles gradually decreasing, closing with increases of 2.20%, 1.36%, and 0.50% respectively, with a maximum fluctuation of 5,873 points over the three days, and on Friday, it reached this week's high of 116,805; in the last two days, the coin price underwent slight adjustments, closing with two small bearish candles with decreases of 0.11% and 0.55%.
The actual performance this week shows that the coin price rebounded for 5 days, and this round of rebound that started on September 1 has now lasted for 12 days, further validating my previous prediction that the rebound would last for 10 to 13 trading days. As this week is still in the rebound cycle and no top signals have appeared at the daily level, the small short positions bought last week will continue to be held, while other medium and short-term operations are in a waiting state.
Next, I will analyze the changes in the internal structure of Bitcoin after this week's operation based on multi-dimensional technical indicators.
- As shown in Figure 1, from the weekly chart perspective:
① Momentum Quantitative Model: The weekly level is in the process of a momentum top divergence. After two consecutive weeks of technical rebounds, the volume (green) bars have shortened compared to last week.
The model indicates a high index for the price decline.
② Sentiment Quantitative Model: Both sentiment indicators are at 0, with peak values at 0.
The model indicates that the stock price is in a downward process.
③ Digital Monitoring Model: No digital signals are currently displayed.
The above data suggests that the weekly level is in the early stages of a decline.
- As shown in Figure 2, from the daily chart analysis:
① Momentum Quantitative Model: After 12 consecutive days of rebound, the momentum line 1 has returned to just above the zero axis, while line 2 is still below the zero axis; the energy (red) bars have gradually increased for 9 consecutive days and have shortened for the first time on Sunday.
② Sentiment Quantitative Model: Both sentiment indicators are below 50 after Sunday’s trading.
The above data suggests that the coin price's daily level technical rebound has entered a strong resistance zone, and we should observe the changes in the direction of the two momentum lines.
Bitcoin has entered a bearish market at both the weekly and daily levels, with subsequent trends focusing on shorting at highs.
Next week, Bitcoin will likely have a slight rebound, possibly reaching a new high in this round of technical rebound; however, I believe we are currently at the end of this rebound, with little remaining time and space. After the rebound ends, the coin price will continue to fluctuate downwards.
Resistance levels: The first resistance level is around 117,800, and the strong resistance level is around 119,300.
Support levels: The first support level is around 113,500, the second support level is around 105,300 to 107,000, and the strong support level is around 98,000 to 100,500.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September will be held next week, and the interest rate decision will be announced afterward. I suggest investors pause trading before the announcement and adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Medium-term position: A 30% short position has been established, and please pay attention to the link below for the upcoming position-building strategy.
Short-term position: Set stop-loss points, focusing on shorting at highs. (Using 1 hour as the operating cycle)
① Continue to hold a small short position bought near 113,500, which has entered the stop-loss zone and may be closed at any time next week.
② Focus on observing in the first half of the week, and make decisions after the market news calms down in the second half of the week.
Related: Tom Lee: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) may experience "huge surges" in the next 3 months.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Observation: The Rebound 'Feast' May Be Nearing Its End…”
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