Author: Luke, Mars Finance

On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve officially convened for a two-day interest rate meeting. As is customary, global markets should focus on the interest rate decision to be announced the day after tomorrow (in the early hours of September 18, Beijing time). However, today’s news confirms that an unprecedented personnel struggle has been settled: the court rejected the White House's request to dismiss board member Lisa Cook, while the newly nominated board member Stephen Milan has already been sworn in. This arrangement of "one staying, one entering" signifies that two entirely different ideologies—one defending the traditional independence of the central bank, and the other advocating that monetary policy should serve political agendas—will engage in a historic direct confrontation at the Federal Reserve's decision-making table.

Therefore, the core focus of this meeting has quietly shifted from interpreting economic data to assessing the resilience of the Federal Reserve's system. However, before delving into these profound institutional signals, we first need to clarify the possible paths of this meeting on a purely economic level and their direct impact on global assets. Because regardless of the political struggle, it will ultimately be realized through specific interest rate numbers.

Economic Projections Amidst the Noise: Two Paths for Rate Cuts and Their Global Impact

Path One: A 25 Basis Point Rate Cut—The "Moderate Release" Script

This is the mainstream expectation in the current market. A 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations for a loosening cycle and appears restrained and prudent, representing a typical "moderate release." Historically, although September is often referred to as "the most dangerous month for the stock market," when the Federal Reserve sends clear signals of easing, the market often receives a short-term boost. If this script materializes, U.S. stocks are likely to continue a volatile upward trend in the short term, with market risk appetite becoming more positive.

More importantly, this action by the Federal Reserve will trigger a global liquidity resonance effect. Under the system where the dollar serves as the global pricing anchor, a shift to easing by the Federal Reserve will almost inevitably trigger a "global liquidity flood" chain reaction. Central banks around the world will likely follow suit with rate cuts to avoid excessive appreciation of their currencies relative to the dollar and capital outflows. This means that global market liquidity will become more abundant, spilling over not only into the stock market but also into a broader range of asset classes:

• Gold: As a traditional safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, it will gain additional favor during the easing cycle.

• Cryptocurrency: Assets like Bitcoin, which are most sensitive to liquidity, often experience the fastest and most intense rebounds when the "tap" is turned on.

• Commodities: Industrial products like oil and copper are expected to remain strong under the dual influence of improved economic demand expectations and capital-driven momentum.

It can be said that a 25 basis point rate cut is the starting point for "global asset prices to benefit comprehensively."

Path Two: A 50 Basis Point Rate Cut—The "Crisis Signal" Alarm

However, the market must be wary of another possibility: under strong political pressure from the White House, the Federal Reserve opts for a one-time 50 basis point rate cut. On the surface, this appears to be a larger "benefit," but how will the market interpret it?

The answer is: risk signal. Central banks typically only resort to such aggressive "shock therapy" when they perceive a risk of "hard landing" in the economy. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates significantly more than expected, investors will immediately interpret it as—the decision-makers see worse economic recession data that we do not.

At this point, the injection of short-term liquidity will be completely overwhelmed by panic, potentially leading to a sharp drop in risk assets like U.S. stocks, where "good news turns into bad news." In this chaotic situation, we might even see both gold and the dollar—traditionally viewed as "opposing" assets—rise simultaneously in a unique safe-haven scenario.

In summary: a 25 basis point cut is a "prudent release," while a 50 basis point cut resembles a "crisis signal."

However, as we emphasized at the beginning, the historical significance of this meeting in September 2025 goes far beyond this. Regardless of whether the outcome is 25 or 50 basis points, the decision-making process, voting divergences, and political compromises behind it are what truly define the market's next phase. This is precisely why we must pay attention to the three core signals.

Signal One: Cracks in the Voting Results—The End of Consensus?

In the past, the voting results of the FOMC were usually highly consistent; even if there were one or two dissenting votes, they were often based on good-faith, technical economic viewpoint differences. However, this time, the distribution of the voting results will become the most intuitive "electrocardiogram" for measuring the health of the Federal Reserve's system.

What we need to focus on is not who wins or loses, but the depth of the cracks.

A result of 11-1 or 10-2 can still be interpreted as basic stability under pressure. But if a serious split vote occurs, such as 8-4 or 7-5, especially when dissenting votes come from both extremes—for example, Milan might vote against due to a desire for a 50 basis point cut, while hawks in the committee might vote against any rate cut—this would be an extremely dangerous signal.

This "dual dissent" indicates that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has lost absolute control over the committee, and internal consensus has collapsed. A central bank that cannot reach a consensus will see its policy credibility and future predictability significantly diminished. For the crypto market, which relies on a stable macro environment for risk pricing, this "end of consensus" itself represents the greatest macro risk.

Signal Two: Powell's Words—The Stance of "The Last Federal Reserve Person"

If the voting results are cold numbers, then Powell's words and demeanor at the post-meeting press conference will serve as a more emotional thermometer for interpreting this storm. Be sure to turn off those news flashes that only report interest rate numbers, tune into the live broadcast, and carefully listen to every word he says, observing every expression.

Is he reading from a script, or does he appear at ease after going off-script? When reporters sharply question him about presidential interference and internal disputes, does he choose to evade with diplomatic language, or will he, like former Chair Paul Volcker, clearly reaffirm the Federal Reserve's commitment to defending its independence?

Do his words reveal fatigue and compromise, or do they showcase the stance of "the last Federal Reserve person" as a defender of the institution? Powell's personal credibility largely embodies the credibility of the Federal Reserve. His performance will directly influence the global market's judgment on whether "the Federal Reserve is still the most professional adult in the room."

Signal Three: ETF Fund Flows—The Final Judgment of the Crypto World

When the political mudslinging in Washington settles, and traditional market traders digest the direct impact of the interest rate decision, the real judgment will be made by the crypto world itself. And the most honest voting mechanism is the fund flows of global Bitcoin spot ETFs in the weeks following the meeting.

This multi-hundred billion dollar institutional capital is one of the smartest and most sensitive forces in the market. Their movements will answer the ultimate question: is this internal crisis at the Federal Reserve viewed by the market as a short-term risk to be avoided, or a strategic opportunity to confirm Bitcoin's long-term value proposition?

• If funds continue to flow out: This indicates that institutional investors view the politicization of the Federal Reserve as an instability factor for the entire dollar system, triggering a comprehensive "de-risking" wave, putting pressure on all risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) in the short term.

• If funds shift to significant inflows: This would be a historic signal. It means that institutional capital is beginning to genuinely execute that legendary "script"—using Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against the systemic risks of sovereign currency systems. When the credibility of the central bank that manages the world's reserve currency is compromised, funds will flow to that value island guaranteed by code, free from any political interference.

Ultimately, for those of us deeply engaged in the decentralized world, a most counterintuitive yet profound truth is being tested: the most powerful long-term catalyst for Bitcoin's rise may not be a continuously easing dovish Federal Reserve, but rather a Federal Reserve whose credibility is being eroded in real-time.

The storm in September 2025 is providing the most vivid and public evidence for this assertion. Forget the numbers, learn to interpret the signals; this is the way for us to survive under the new macro paradigm.

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