On October 24 at 20:30 in the UTC+8 time zone, global markets will turn their attention to the U.S. Labor Department's release of the September CPI data. This solitary economic indicator, cast in the shadow of a government shutdown, may become a decisive factor for Bitcoin's short-term trend.
The U.S. will announce the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is not only the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 30 but also the first significant economic indicator released since the government shutdown.
In this "data vacuum" environment, this report has become the only reliable basis for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the current economic situation.
1. Special Background: The "Lone Seedling" Report in a Data Desert
The environment for this CPI release is unprecedented in many years, featuring several unusual characteristics.
● This is the first CPI data released on a Friday since January 2018, breaking market conventions. Even more unusual is that this report is being released against the backdrop of a continuing government shutdown.
Due to the government shutdown, other key economic indicators, including the non-farm payroll report and retail sales data, have been suspended. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics specifically recalled some employees to handle this inflation report, but this "patchwork" operation has raised market concerns about the accuracy of the data.
● In this "economic data vacuum," tonight's CPI data naturally becomes the only guide for the market and the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve officials are effectively "flying blind," lacking sufficient economic indicators to comprehensively assess the economic situation, further amplifying the importance of this CPI data.
2. Market Expectations: Mild Inflation Rise and Rate Cut Game
According to widespread market expectations, the U.S. September CPI year-on-year is expected to rise from 2.9% in August to 3.1%. Economists at Wells Fargo share the same expectation, believing that inflation remains within a range consistent with "gradual disinflation."
● Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to remain at a stable level of 3.1%, consistent with July and August. This data indicates that while overall inflation has fluctuated, underlying price pressures remain stubborn.
● However, there are differing voices in the market. Independent macroeconomic data provider Truflation in the crypto space shows that CPI could be as low as 2.28%, far below market consensus. This analytical divergence adds uncertainty to tonight's data.
● Despite the uncertainty surrounding inflation, the futures market shows remarkable confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. The market currently prices in a 98.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30.
3. Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve's Tough Choice
Tomorrow night's CPI data will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of the month, behind which lies the complex policy balancing challenge faced by the Federal Reserve.
● If the CPI data is significantly lower than expected, it may reinforce the trend of slowing inflation. This would provide justification for the Federal Reserve to consider more aggressive rate cuts (such as 50 basis points) to address a potentially weak job market.
"The Federal Reserve tends to focus on the cumulative direction of inflation rather than individual data points," says Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group. This perspective suggests that even if a single month's data declines, it may not immediately change the policy path.
● If the CPI data is higher than expected, it will exacerbate the decision-making dilemma within the Federal Reserve. On one hand, the stickiness of inflation worries officials; on the other hand, without supporting employment data, they must remain vigilant about the risks of economic downturn and a weak labor market.
Data Source: AiCoin Official Website
4. Crypto Impact: Bitcoin Faces a Key Test
For the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, tonight's CPI data will be a critical "stress test."
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at digital asset financial services company HashKey Group, points out: "Bitcoin and the entire market are expected to respond moderately to this week's significant macro event."
Specifically, Bitcoin's potential movements are as follows:
● If CPI is below expectations: It may push Bitcoin towards the $117,000-$120,000 range. If the CPI data is relatively mild, it will re-anchor the trading logic of an "economic soft landing" and strengthen Bitcoin's upward tendency as liquidity expectations improve.
● If CPI is above expectations: Bitcoin may test the key psychological support level of $100,000.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market appears to be more fragile than the traditional stock market. Bitcoin's trading price is about 11% lower than its historical high of $102,000 set on October 11.
Data Source: AiCoin Official Website
5. Fund Movements: ETF Inflows and Institutional Sentiment
On the eve of the CPI data release, Bitcoin ETF fund flows present complex signals, revealing the contradictory psychology of institutional investors.
● On October 22, 2025, BlackRock's U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded a $210.9 million net inflow. This data indicates that despite market uncertainties, institutional demand remains resilient.
● Since October, Bitcoin ETFs have shown a $536.4 million net outflow, triggering a drop in Bitcoin prices of about 13%.
Data Source: AiCoin Official Website
This outflow of funds aligns with increased market volatility. Bitcoin ETF outflows have now become a leading indicator, with extreme inflows/outflows reflecting overbought/oversold conditions and shifts in macroeconomic sentiment.
Bitunix analyst Dean Chen suggests: “Traders should pay attention to the real-time movements of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar after the data release: both rising will put pressure on Bitcoin, while a decline may reignite risk appetite.”
6. Expert Opinions: Market Sentiment and Risk Balance
On the eve of the CPI data release, sentiment in the crypto market has turned cautious.
● Derek Lim, research director at cryptocurrency market-making firm Caladan, points out that investors are currently in a defensive state and are hedging against potential risks.
● “If U.S. inflation meets expectations with only minor deviations, the most likely outcome is a muted market reaction,” Derek Lim states, echoing Sun's assessment.
● Dean Chen adds: “In this environment, volatility remains high, and the sustainability of ETF fund inflows will determine whether Bitcoin can regain momentum after the data release.”
● Kautious Data analysts note that in the absence of other macroeconomic data, the impact of CPI is amplified.
“Weaker macro signals may set up a near-term bullish narrative for cryptocurrencies while adding tail risks to the broader market.”
As the data release time approaches, traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels. The $100,000 psychological level for Bitcoin is an important support, while on the upside, the market will focus on whether it can retest the $117,000-$120,000 range.
Tomorrow night's data will not only determine Bitcoin's short-term trend but will also set the tone for the entire cryptocurrency market for the coming weeks. In the shadow of the government shutdown, this inflation report serves as a beacon in the dark, guiding the direction of various assets.
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