Can the rise in memory and hard drive prices drive an explosion in the on-chain storage sector?

First, the answer: from a correlation perspective, while it cannot be said that there is no relationship at all, the actual correlation may not exceed 1%.

The rise in memory and hard drive prices is mainly due to:

First, this is a typical capital expenditure cycle for AI data centers.

Whether it is DRAM, HBM, or enterprise-level HDDs, they essentially serve the expansion of computing power infrastructure. AI training and inference do not only consume video memory; they also require computation, memory, storage, power, and networking simultaneously. This is a complete system, not a single demand.

Second, the demand is real, not conceptual.

Data centers require high-frequency, stable, and predictable read/write performance, as well as extremely low unit storage costs. The rise in memory and hard drive prices reflects changes in real orders, real purchases, and real delivery cycles, rather than emotions or expectations.

Third, the supply side is contracting but not short.

Whether it is memory or HDDs, the current price increase has a common characteristic: manufacturers, after experiencing a long price war in the previous cycle, have chosen to control production, raise prices, and focus more on high-end and enterprise markets, prioritizing cash flow and gross margins. This means that the sensitivity of prices to changes in demand has been amplified.

On the other hand, on-chain storage is completely the opposite.

First, on-chain storage does not serve the computing power system but rather the consensus system.

AI data requires a large amount of real computing power, not consensus. Describing large-scale data with consensus is fundamentally an engineering and economic error.

Second, on-chain storage addresses the issue of trustworthiness, not scale.

99% of storage needs in the real world do not require full network replication, non-deletability, and decentralized arbitration. What they need is cheap, stable, controllable, and accountable solutions.

Third, price increases will not be transmitted to the blockchain.

The rise in memory and hard drive prices will only lead data centers to emphasize hot and cold tiering, further engineering and scaling storage architecture, and becoming more sensitive to costs and efficiency. It will not lead companies to suddenly accept a more expensive, lower-performing, and less clear-responsibility on-chain solution.

Therefore, the two are not on the same demand curve, nor are they in the same capital expenditure logic. If one must find a relationship, it is more of an emotional-level "narrative connection" rather than a structural-level "true benefit."

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