Host: yuanyuan, BitMart Marketing VP
Guest: 0xTodd, Partner at Nothing Research, Co-founder of Ethereum Staking Pool EBunker
Recording Date: December 16, 2025
BitMart's "Crypto Market Observation Bureau" is a newly launched Chinese in-depth interview program that invites the most discerning and influential builders, investors, and researchers in the Web3 industry to discuss financial innovation, technological evolution, and long-term trends, leaving behind judgments and experiences that are truly valuable references for the industry.
In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price fluctuations, narrative shifts, and the next opportunity. However, what truly determines whether a person can stay at the table long-term is often not a single doubling, but whether they still know what they are doing when the market provides no feedback.
This is also something 0xTodd has repeatedly validated over the past eight years.
Entering the crypto industry in 2017 from a background in materials chemistry, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder who continuously seeks "certainty" in the underlying structures. Compared to emotionally driven participation, he is more concerned with: what things are worth long-term bets.
I. Cross-Disciplinary: From the Laboratory to the "Moment of Arrival" of Bitcoin
Todd's entry into the industry was not gradual but marked by a clear sign of the times.
In 2017, he was preparing to apply for overseas PhD programs. At the same time, the "EternalBlue" ransomware incident erupted globally, with hackers demanding ransom payments in Bitcoin. While most people focused on the cybersecurity risks themselves, he saw another signal—Bitcoin entered the mainstream narrative for the first time in a "real use" way.
Having been exposed to Bitcoin as early as 2013, Todd was very sensitive to this point. He later mentioned an experiential judgment multiple times:
Whenever mainstream media begins to seriously discuss "what Bitcoin can be used for," it often signifies that a major cycle is unfolding.
Thus, he halted his PhD application and turned to the crypto industry. In his view, this was not a speculative choice but a rational decision made after witnessing a new financial species entering mainstream visibility—also a shift from a traditional academic path with stagnant growth to a rapidly evolving new field.
II. Taking a Stand Amidst Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna
After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd's main labels.
From early research output on Zhihu to entering family offices and exchange research institutes to establish a formal research system, and later founding Nothing Research, he has consistently conducted long-term research around core themes such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. As his focus shifted to Twitter (X), his research began to be seen more widely and questioned more frequently.
In 2021, when Luna and UST were at the peak of market sentiment, he chose to take one of the least popular positions—publicly questioning its underlying structure and defining it as a system highly reliant on confidence. For a time, this judgment brought him not applause but continuous attacks and ridicule.
The result was the collapse of UST in 2022. The funds managed by Todd achieved significant net value growth by shorting UST during extreme market conditions. Although he did not completely "successfully escape the top" during Defi Summer, this successful judgment also validated his repeated emphasis on "earning cognitive money."
"The thrill of proving one's understanding with real money is more satisfying than ordinary profit; it's a crazy release of dopamine."
III. Research Methodology: I Welcome the World to "Debate"
Unlike many researchers, Todd does not shy away from debate; he actively encourages "debate."
He is accustomed to inviting people with different positions to refute his research views after publishing them. In his view, the real danger is not being opposed, but rather that research conclusions are self-consistent in a closed environment without ever undergoing external validation.
This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:
Every conclusion needs a source, every piece of logic needs to be traceable, and every judgment must be able to be reviewed.
Because of this, he maintains a restrained and strict requirement for his research—he would rather be slow than sacrifice accuracy to attract attention. In an industry with extreme information overload, this "slow thinking" has helped him avoid a lot of noise.
In his view, the biggest challenge in the crypto industry is not a lack of information, but how to judge which information is worth believing. The methodology formed during his academic research phase has become an important tool for him to filter information.
IV. Investment Philosophy: An Asset Portfolio That Allows You to "Sleep Well"
When it comes to asset allocation, Todd provided a portfolio structure he currently endorses—Bitcoin + US Treasuries.
The logic is not complicated:
Bitcoin: Just observe one variable—whether major economies are still expanding their money supply. As long as the fiat currency system continues to inflate, Bitcoin's value as a "non-sovereign, limited supply asset" will not disappear.
US Treasuries: Locking in long-term returns of around 4%-5% during a high-interest rate period provides stable cash flow for the portfolio.
In his view, this forms a complete closed loop:
If money printing continues, Bitcoin benefits; if money printing stops, US Treasuries provide stable returns.
"This is a portfolio that allows one to sleep well in the long term."
V. The Underrated Killer Application: Stablecoins
If Bitcoin is the first killer application in the blockchain field, then in Todd's view, stablecoins are the second and are still underrated.
After living and working abroad, his perception of the value of stablecoins became very intuitive. The traditional banking system is not as stable as imagined; account restrictions, compliance checks, and cross-border friction can arise at any time. Stablecoins, on the other hand, only require a wallet to complete value transfers globally.
On the topic of RWA, he also maintains a restrained and differentiated attitude:
He is cautious about "full tokenization of securities," believing that traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; however, he shows a clear long-term optimism for stablecoin products anchored to real yield assets, especially US Treasuries.
In this context, he has also noted products like BMRUSD launched by BitMart (in collaboration with DigiFT). These stablecoins, anchored to real assets and providing predictable returns, are more likely to be accepted by the market in the trend of compliance.
"Once you've used a stablecoin, it's hard to fully return to the traditional banking system."
AI's Silicon-Based Perspective: Crypto is Its Natural Solution
Regarding the relationship between AI and crypto, Todd does not indulge in conceptual overlays but thinks from a structural perspective.
In his view, AI-assisted trading is an almost inevitable direction. As model capabilities continue to improve, the stability and speed of AI at the execution level will eventually surpass that of most human traders.
More importantly, there are issues of collaboration and payment between AIs. When AIs begin to call services, purchase computing power, or data from each other, binding a bank card is clearly unrealistic. High-precision, programmable, permissionless stablecoins become the most natural settlement medium.
From this perspective, crypto is not a subordinate narrative to AI but a natural complement to it at the economic level.
When asked whether he feels anxious about being replaced by AI as a content creator, Todd stated that one should prepare expectations in advance and wait for its arrival.
Advice for Newcomers and Three Judgments on 2026
For newcomers wanting to enter the industry, Todd's advice remains practical and conservative:
Learn the technology first, then learn trading.
Understanding the technical principles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than initially focusing on K-lines.
Regarding future judgments, he proposed three main themes:
Crypto finds its position in the AI wave: AI provides productivity, and crypto provides production relations.
The scenarios for stablecoins continue to expand: payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlements will truly enter the public eye.
Compliance brings structural increments: the participation of large financial institutions will push the industry into a new stage of development.
Slow Judgment is the Long-Term Competitive Edge
Todd does not chase the peaks of narratives. He is more like someone who is always moving within the structure: researching, validating, building, and reviewing.
In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but those who ultimately remain are often those who truly understand the structure and are willing to take responsibility for every word.
Risk Warning:
The opinions or views expressed in this column only represent the personal stance of the guest and do not represent the views of BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered professional financial investment advice.
Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and carries significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical situations, or simulated results do not represent future returns. The value of digital currencies may fluctuate, and buying, holding, or trading digital currencies may involve significant risks. Before participating in trading or holding digital currencies, please carefully assess their suitability based on your investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.
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