Bitcoin cooperation signals posted the fastest recovery in 5.5 years of data.

BTC has been in a Defection regime for 41 days. Defection is when speculative activity overpowers patient capital. The violent moves in these regimes happen early, with drawdowns concentrating in the first 15 days.

By Day 30, the speculative impulse is largely spent. Every Defection regime that survived past that point has seen max additional drawdown of roughly 3%.

The Composite Patience Score (CPS) measures the balance between cooperation and defection forces across onchain and derivatives data. CPS crossed 0.25 on March 8, a level where downside has historically become contained during Defection regimes.

CPS went from 0.03 to 0.32 in 5 days, the fastest move in the model's history and 15% above the prior record from June 2022.

There are caveats to this. Sample sizes are small, and one prior CPS crossing in September 2024 did briefly exceed the equivalent drawdown distance before recovering. The fastest CPS move on record also means least precedent to work with.

Defection pressure is fading while patient capital rebuilds faster than anything in the model's history. The conditions that have historically preceded deep drawdowns in these regimes aren't present in the current data.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。