Today's homework is a bit difficult. On one hand, the fighting between the United States and Iran has escalated, and on the other hand, Powell's relatively hawkish speech. Let's talk about the fighting first; although the IEA has released oil to lower prices, Iran is preparing to escalate the war. The market is quite worried about the impact on industry and energy, and oil prices have risen again. Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil has returned to 99 dollars, and it may surge to 100 tomorrow, even though Powell did not explicitly mention the impact on oil prices.

However, he did acknowledge that the rise in oil prices could push inflation higher. Although this is already expected by the Federal Reserve, investors will still have headaches. Iran's resilience may surpass Trump's imagination. Even though Trump is saying every day that the war will end soon, there have been no signs of an end up to now, let alone in the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Powell denied the possibility of a short-term rate hike, he basically agreed with the expectation that there might be a rate cut within the year, and he even suggested that AI has increased the demand for data centers and elevated inflation, which is another reason for not cutting rates in the short term. Additionally, there are tariffs, and he actually thinks the impact of the war may be short-term. The main focus should still be on the second half of the year; the first half has truly been a painful mode.

Looking back at the data on Bitcoin, today under the dual pressure of oil prices and Powell, the price of $BTC still experienced a downward fluctuation. It's quite interesting; yesterday we were discussing a bull market, and today some are saying a bear market has come. In reality, the main narrative is still the market turbulence brought by the war. With the escalation of war and rising oil prices, the market will be sluggish, and conversely, the market may gain a bit of vitality.

The chip structure remains as stable as ever. Although prices are not good, most investors still have no interest in changing hands. In the short term, let’s see the outcome of the war.

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