On March 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell not only dropped a "policy bomb" by keeping interest rates unchanged but also staged a "death declaration" about his personal political career in the subsequent press conference. Faced with the Department of Justice's investigation, Trump's pressure, and Senate gridlock, Powell rarely revealed his "iron will": I will not leave until the investigation is over.

1. Powell’s "Iron Declaration": Not only staying but also gaining power

● When asked about his personal position, Powell dismissed his previous ambiguous attitude and gave a very tough response. He emphasized that he has no intention of leaving the Federal Reserve Board until the investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice regarding him and the Federal Reserve is fully concluded and the truth is revealed. This was not only a direct response to months of speculation from the outside but also a public "protest" against the White House.

● Powell’s chairmanship will expire in May this year, but his board term will legally last until January 2028. This means that even if he loses the title of chairman, he will still be an undeniable force in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making body. Moreover, Powell also leveraged the law as a shield: if Trump's nominated successor Kevin Walsh is not confirmed by the Senate before the end of his term, he will serve as "acting chairman" by law, continuing to oversee the daily operations of the Federal Reserve.

● This statement of "seamless connection" has been interpreted by the market as a signal of Powell's determination to fight until the last moment. As the "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos said, Powell's actions have greatly restricted Trump's attempts to reshape the Federal Reserve. After all, as long as Powell remains in his board position, Trump has one less opportunity to place his own people.

2. The Underlying Battle Behind Interest Rates: Judicial Investigation and Political Revenge

● The root of this turmoil is not a simple difference in economic data but rather a political dark battle involving fluctuations of 250 billion U.S. dollars in market value. In January this year, the U.S. Department of Justice suddenly issued a subpoena regarding the cost overruns of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project, targeting Powell directly.

● Powell dismissed this with disdain, bluntly revealing its political motivations: the so-called investigation is merely an excuse, and the real reason is his refusal to set interest rates according to Trump's demands. Earlier this month, a federal judge made a ruling favorable to Powell, halting the subpoena, stating that the government’s actions were intended to "harass and pressure Powell." However, the Department of Justice remains undeterred, vowing to appeal.

● This legal tug-of-war has directly affected the attitude on Capitol Hill. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis has made it clear: he will not support Walsh's nomination until the investigation is fully resolved. This undoubtedly gives Powell a breather. If Walsh's confirmation is indefinitely postponed, Powell can continue to sit in the chairman's office and may even directly lead monetary policy in the second half of 2026.

3. Policy Stability and Market Turmoil: Inflation, War, and the "Acting Chairman"

● Beyond political struggles, the economic reality faced by the Federal Reserve is equally severe. The FOMC meeting on March 18 decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive time of inaction.

● Powell sent a clear "hawkish" signal at the press conference. He pointed out that current inflation remains stubborn, predicting that the PCE inflation rate will reach 2.7% by the end of 2026, higher than previously expected. He attributed inflation to the "double impact" of tariffs and energy prices, especially the surge in oil prices caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This means that the possibility of interest rate cuts is minimal before a substantial improvement in inflation appears. He even revealed that the committee has already begun discussions on "whether the next step may involve raising interest rates."

● In this context, Powell's chairmanship remains uncertain, bringing significant uncertainty to global markets. If Powell can only serve in an "acting chairman" capacity after May, his authority and ability to guide the market will be tested. But at least for now, he remains the gatekeeper of U.S. monetary policy.

4. Perspective of the Cryptocurrency Market: Utilizing AiCoin to See Through Turbulent Times

● For cryptocurrency investors, Powell's "defense battle" is not just a verbal sparring match on television. The Federal Reserve's interest rate path, geopolitical risks, and the power shifts in Washington are profoundly affecting the bull and bear markets of cryptocurrency through U.S. dollar liquidity.

● In this era of information explosion and intense bullish versus bearish struggles, how do we use professional tools to pierce through the fog? AiCoin, as a professional cryptocurrency market data platform, is helping users capture opportunities during this turbulent cycle. For instance, recently, as uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy increased, the prediction market platform Kalshi skyrocketed in popularity, soaring to #20 in AiCoin's project popularity rankings, with a heat index reaching as high as 16,562.

● Through AiCoin's "airdrop radar" feature, users can easily track new projects that are deeply connected to traditional financial markets. Whether betting on BTC price movements based on Federal Reserve resolutions or using prediction markets to hedge against war risks, AiCoin provides not just candlestick charts but also a connector of on-chain data and macro events. Just as Powell acknowledged the impact of AI on the economy during the press conference, cryptocurrency investors must also utilize tools like AiCoin to find their unique Alpha amidst macro storms.

Powell's stance of neither leaving nor cutting interest rates has completely shattered Trump's dreams of rate cuts. With May 15 approaching, this farce surrounding power, law, and money will continue to play out in Washington. Regardless of whether Powell remains or Walsh takes office, one thing is certain: the global economy and cryptocurrency market under high-interest environments will still need to navigate through turmoil.

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