Who would have thought that a once-promising safe-haven asset has now become the biggest trap for the bulls.

On March 20, 2026, this ordinary Friday is destined to be recorded in the annals of global financial history. Just as global investors were closely watching the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ready to embrace the warm shelter of gold and even hoping for Bitcoin to recreate the myth of “digital gold,” the market revealed its most ferocious side. Gold was bloodied, silver fell into a bear market, and Bitcoin lost the $70,000 mark, with the culprit being the “ghost of inflation” completely ignited by geopolitical warfare.

1. Crazy Market: This is not a correction, it is a stampede

● In the past 24 hours, the precious metals and crypto markets have experienced a nuclear-level sell-off. Spot gold continued its crash-like decline, breaking through the $4,600 mark, even approaching the $4,500/ounce integer mark during trading, with a single-day drop of more than 6%. It has fallen over $900 from its historical highs set at the beginning of the year.

● But that was not the worst. Silver, known as the "devil's variety," demonstrated its terrifying volatility. Spot silver prices plummeted 12%, falling below $67/ounce, marking a new low since February 6. Technically, silver has officially entered a bear market after a drop of more than 20% from its peak.

● Meanwhile, the “digital gold” Bitcoin, once hoped for by countless believers, also failed to stand firm during this storm. Bitcoin prices fell below the $70,000 integer mark, dropping more than 4% during the day, and hitting around $69,500 at the lowest. Ethereum also dropped over 4% simultaneously, with mainstream tokens like XRP, BNB, and Solana generally retreating, and the market exhibiting a weak pattern of "falling, not rising." Platinum and palladium were also not spared; the entire precious metal and crypto sector was in dire straits.

● Liquidity is drying up, and buying power is disappearing. This is not merely a price drop, but a series of liquidations of long positions from bulls, a stampede of long liquidation.

2. Rate cut expectations “cleared”: the biggest support is gone

Why have gold and Bitcoin suddenly stopped being safe havens? The answer lies in the bond market.

● The trigger for all this points to the largest logic that once supported risk assets to rise - the Federal Reserve's rate cut. On Thursday night Beijing time, as the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision, market sentiment underwent a drastic change. While the Bank of England remained unchanged, its Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly passed the decision to maintain interest rates with a unanimous vote, delivering a “hawkish” signal that shocked the market.

○ This cold wind suddenly blew across the Atlantic, sweeping through the US bond market. Traders suddenly realized: the beautiful dream of “rate cuts this year” should wake up.

● Data shows that traders have completely erased their bets on a Fed rate cut in 2026 and even started hedging against potential rate hike risks that may occur in the coming months. The interest rate swap market shows that there is only 12 basis points left for rate cuts this year, which means that even a single 25 basis point cut is getting hard to muster.

● For non-yielding assets like gold, the rapid rise in holding costs has become the last straw that breaks the camel's back. And for liquidity-sensitive cryptocurrencies, the disappearance of rate cut expectations means that the window for incremental capital to enter the market has been temporarily closed, causing the upward momentum driven by favorable macro conditions to extinguish instantly.

3. Strange Logic: War ignites inflation but extinguishes gold and crypto prices

This leads to a strange phenomenon that confuses retail investors: why has gold and Bitcoin fallen when conflict erupts in the Middle East? The root lies in the nature of this conflict. It is no longer a simple border friction but a "war of energy" targeting core energy facilities.

● Just yesterday, the South Pars gas field (the world's largest gas field) and the Assaluyeh petrochemical facility were attacked. In response, Iranian missiles hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City—the lifeline for global liquefied natural gas production.

● When the flames of war reach the heart of energy, Brent crude oil briefly surged above $119. The direct consequence of soaring oil prices is the terrifying “imported inflation.” The Fed's greatest concern is not war itself, but the inflationary pressures that result from it.

● Alvin Kan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, points out that the simultaneous decline of gold and Bitcoin reflects not a rotational movement between safe-haven assets but a "broader risk-off behavior." Rising energy prices are pushing up inflation expectations and reinforcing the judgment that "high rates will be sustained longer," which will further tighten market liquidity and form an adverse combination for risk assets.

● The market logic has switched: rising oil prices → inflation rebound → central banks unable to cut rates or even needing to raise rates → gold and Bitcoin are sold off.

4. Capital Migration: From Safe-Haven Assets to “Black Gold” and High Dividends

In the capital flow data from the AiCoin platform, we can clearly see the migration path of funds behind this bloody massacre.

● As market volatility soars, institutional investors are facing immense margin call pressures. Hedge funds that previously accumulated substantial unrealized gains in the gold bull market have started to massively liquidate their long positions in gold to obtain liquidity to cover losses in other assets (like stocks). Paul Surguy, head of investment management at Kingswood Group, noted that global markets are experiencing widespread sell-offs, and the assets that investors prioritize selling are often those with the best liquidity; now precious metals may be entering such a phase, with even gold, as a "safe-haven asset," being sold off to make room for other trades.

● More notably, funds are shifting from safe-haven assets to the new darling of “physical assets”—energy. Analysts at Saxo Bank point out that conflicts are impacting the lifeblood of global energy systems, and funds are gradually shifting towards hydrocarbons (oil, natural gas) for trading. This phenomenon of “abandoning gold for oil” is extremely rare in previous commodity cycles. It signifies that in the early stages of stagflation trades, the resilience of crude oil is replacing gold's status as a safe haven, becoming a new tool for hedging against inflation.

● Meanwhile, in the crypto market, funds are not pouring into Bitcoin for safety as in the past, but rather choosing to stay on the sidelines. On-chain data shows that the volume of contract liquidations has surged, and the long-short game has reached a white-hot level. Even stablecoins pegged to gold (like XAUT), although showing relative resilience during this round of crash without extreme price decreases like the spot market, have seen their off-exchange premium space significantly narrow. This reflects that even blockchain-based digital gold struggles to stand out in the face of this massive shift in macro logic. Funds are fleeing from all assets associated with “no yield,” be it paper gold, digital gold, or Bitcoin.

5. The Future: A Long Bear Path or a Golden Pit?

At this critical juncture, both bulls and bears are locked in fierce combat.

● In the short term, market sentiment is extremely fragile. Commodity strategists at TD Securities warn that due to previously overcrowded institutional positions, once a downward trend takes hold, gold still has significant downside potential. For Bitcoin, analysts point out that the $70,000—$75,000 range will be the main oscillation zone in the short term; if it effectively breaks below $70,000, the next support will look toward $68,000.

● Regarding Bitcoin, Wintermute trader Bryan Tan points out that in the early stages of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin actually outperformed gold by about 20%, which is unusual for a typically seen high-volatility risk asset. Although there has been a pullback, it has not experienced a crash-like decline similar to precious metals, reflecting a certain degree of resilience in its funding structure.

● Looking further ahead, amidst simultaneous turmoil in geopolitics, energy, and finance, ensuring the security of crypto assets in the future is becoming a new focus for the industry. BTQ Technologies has recently launched a new version on the Bitcoin Quantum testnet that first implements a Bitcoin output type resistant to quantum attacks, preparing for the long-term survival of digital assets.

● On this thrilling Friday, we may be witnessing a turning point of an era: the old safe-haven logic has been broken, and a new pricing order is being established. The simultaneous collapse of gold, silver, and Bitcoin reminds every investor that in the face of macro changes, no one can remain independent forever. For ordinary investors, the need now more than ever is a calm mind and the resolve to navigate through short-term fog to see long-term value. In the face of such massive volatility, surviving is more important than anything else.

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