Author: Karthik Subramanian

Translation: Shenchao TechFlow

Shenchao Guide: The Pudgy Penguins ecological token PENGU has reclaimed the psychological level of $0.01 with a week-on-week increase of over 33%, driven by the NFT floor price standing at 5 ETH and whales increasing their holdings by 17.71% over seven days. However, the upcoming unlocking of 703 million tokens on May 17 may pose the biggest test for this rebound. This article outlines the on-chain data, technical signals, and potential risks driving the rise of PENGU.

On April 27, PENGU surged over 17% within 24 hours, reclaiming $0.01, peaking at $0.01035, a new three-month high. During the same period, the 24-hour trading volume skyrocketed by 210%, reaching $385.32 million.

This wave of activity occurred against an interesting backdrop: BTC was rejected around $80,000, ETH was consolidating around $2,400, and the overall market was relatively weak. PENGU's counter-trend performance has drawn market attention to this NFT ecological token on the Solana chain.

NFT Floor Price Stands Above 5 ETH, Blue Chip Effect Drives Token Demand

The most immediate catalyst for this rise is the increase in the Pudgy Penguins NFT floor price. The floor price of the core series has reached 5 ETH, with a weekly increase of 20% and trading volume close to 1,000 ETH in seven days. Pudgy Penguins has again secured a place in the top tier of blue-chip NFTs.

@lokithebird tweeted: It's fantastic to see BAYC return to 10 ETH and drive the entire market. This serves as a reminder for the Pudgy Penguins NFT ecosystem. The Pudgy team has been providing methodology to other teams for years, achieving strong results...

A structural feature of the NFT market is emerging: funds are concentrating on top projects like Pudgy Penguins and BAYC, despite the overall number of NFT participants nearly halving since February. The more funds concentrate, the smaller inflows can still trigger significant price fluctuations.

The narrative around PENGU is becoming clearer: Pudgy toys have entered over a thousand Walmart stores, and the browser game Pudgy World has launched. PENGU has become the easiest entry point for ordinary traders to participate in the entire Pudgy ecosystem.

@pudgypenguins tweeted: Pudgy World is now live, a free browser game. Explore the 12 unique towns of The Berg, help Pengu find Polly, and enjoy mini-games.

Experience it now: https://t.co/x7lkMt8Rre

703 Million Tokens Have Been Unlocked, But the Next Round is Coming on May 17

While prices are rising, the pressure on the supply side cannot be ignored. On April 17, 703 million PENGU tokens were unlocked and released into the market, accounting for 0.79% of the total supply.

DNTV Research analyst Bradley Park gave a rather cool judgment: the bullish ecosystem news just provided liquidity for large holders to offload during the unlocking window.

@CoinDesk tweeted: The recent rebound of the Pudgy Penguins $PENGU token seems closely related to the token unlocking on April 17, which released about 703 million tokens, accounting for 0.79% of the total supply.

In other words, retail enthusiasm is providing exit liquidity for large holders. The next round of 703.92 million token unlocking is set for May 17. If the market fails to digest this newly added supply, the possibility of a pullback to the support level of $0.008 exists.

Technical Perspective: Arc Bottom Breakthrough, but RSI is Already Overbought

On the daily chart, PENGU has formed a textbook-style arc bottom pattern. After months of declines, the price has reclaimed the short-term and mid-term moving averages.

The key breakout point is the $0.0084 supply zone, where previous resistance has now flipped to support. However, the RSI has already risen above 70, entering the overbought territory. While buying pressure is dominant, the risk of short-term momentum exhaustion is also accumulating.

Key Levels:

• Immediate Resistance: $0.0102. Daily close above $0.0104 is expected to trigger a 30% rebound to $0.0137
• Core Resistance Zone: $0.013 - $0.014, previously a major rejection area, also the ultimate target for this bullish round
• Main Support: $0.0082 (100-day EMA) and $0.007 (50-day EMA)
• Downward Risk: A drop below $0.009 may retest the February 6 low of $0.0052

Caption: Technical analysis chart, source TradingView

Traders Union analyst Viktoras Karapetjanc's assessment is that PENGU is stable above short to mid-term support but is constrained by long-term resistance. Current momentum looks good, but the overbought signal indicates a possible consolidation. He anticipates the price will oscillate in the range of $0.009 - $0.00967.

Altcoin Sherpa: Bullish in the Long Term but Be Careful Not to Chase Now

The amplification effect of social media is evident in this wave of activity. PENGU surged nearly 6% within 7 hours, and KOLs on X intensively discussed its upward momentum.

@AltcoinSherpa tweeted: $PENGU continues to rise... I love seeing this trend. If you are a short-term trader, be cautious about chasing in at this position. But if you are looking at a larger cycle, there should still be room. The 200-day EMA is right here. I remain bullish.

Altcoin Sherpa's logic is clear: the 200-day EMA is an important checkpoint, and while it may be overextended in the short term, the medium to long-term trend is improving. His view represents that of part of the market: PENGU is transitioning from a speculative meme coin to a core asset in the NFT finance (NFTFi) space.

Whales Increasing Holdings + Exchange Outflow, but Derivative Market Hides Leverage Risks

Nansen data shows that whales have increased their holdings of PENGU by 17.71% over the past seven days. CoinGlass exchange data shows a net outflow of $283,410 in the spot market, indicating that holders are transferring tokens to private wallets rather than preparing to sell on exchanges.

The picture in the derivatives market is more complex. The liquidation map shows $4.91 million in short positions facing risk above $0.0103. If PENGU breaks through this price level, forced short covering may accelerate the rise. Conversely, at the $0.00947 level, there are $3.65 million in long leverage positions, and if the price drops there, it would trigger a series of liquidations.

The Overall Market is Weak, With Funds Rotating Between "Narrative Coins"

PENGU's performance stands out against the backdrop of the overall market. BTC briefly surged to near $80,000 due to news of a ceasefire in the Middle East but was quickly pushed back to $77,000. Most top 100 altcoins saw slight declines, making PENGU's double-digit gains eye-catching.

The total market cap of the cryptocurrency market remains around $2.68 trillion, with no new funds flowing in. What funds are doing is rotating narratives, jumping from one hotspot to another. PENGU is the one currently selected.

Risk Warning

Several key risk points need attention: the 703 million tokens unlocking on May 17 is the latest supply shock window; RSI being overbought indicates a higher probability of a short-term pullback; moreover, reports have mentioned that the Pudgy Penguins brand is facing a trademark lawsuit, which may bring legal uncertainties. PENGU is currently about 85.7% away from its historical high of $0.068 in December 2024, and returning to previous highs will require a significant boost in market cap and liquidity.