• Distribution is next
• Address activity on the rise

On-chain and exchange-related activity at Shiba Inu has significantly increased, but the trend of that activity is not particularly optimistic.

Distribution is next

More than 429 billion SHIB have passed through exchanges in the past day, and net flows and reserves have increased. That appears to be renewed interest on paper. In reality, it tends to favor distribution over accumulation.

Total net flow increased by more than 10%, and exchange reserves increased to about 81.7 trillion SHIB. This is significant because growing reserves usually mean that more tokens are being transferred to exchanges, which is typically a sign of impending selling pressure. The idea that market players are positioning to offload rather than hold is further supported by the fact that inflows are exceeding outflows.

That pressure is reflected in price action. The recent recovery attempt has created a weak ascending channel, which is more of a relief move than a trend reversal, while SHIB is still trapped in a descending structure on the longer timeframe. The asset is currently approaching a confluence of resistance near the 50–100 EMA cluster, where rallies in the past have repeatedly failed.

Technically speaking, this is a compression zone under resistance rather than a breakout setup. Although the channel's higher lows appear positive, they are occurring in opposition to a strong downward trend and rising exchange supply. Unless there is a powerful external catalyst, that combination typically resolves downward.

Address activity on the rise

There has been a slight increase in active addresses, which may indicate increased participation. However, that activity does not result in persistent buying pressure unless there is a corresponding decline in exchange reserves or a shift toward net outflows. It's not necessarily more demand; it's just more movement.

This is a case of imbalance. Although volume is increasing, there is a noticeable tilt toward sell-side liquidity, and it is not clean accumulation. Any attempt at a breakout is therefore brittle.

The structure is likely to collapse if SHIB is unable to break above the immediate resistance zone around $0.0000064–$0.0000066. The $0.0000060 level would be first exposed by a breakdown below the channel's lower trendline, followed by a deeper decline toward the most recent lows.

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