Author: Gino Matos

Translated by: Shen Chao TechFlow

Shen Chao Guide: After failing to surge above 82000 USD, Bitcoin has fallen for two consecutive days, dropping into the support range of 78000 USD. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.6%, and the 30-year has breached 5.13%. Coupled with the accelerated April CPI of 3.8% and oil prices surpassing 105 USD, the macro environment is extremely unfavorable for risk assets. The ETF capital flow has also shifted to net outflow at a critical moment. Can 78000 hold? If not, the next stop is 75000.

78000 USD: If this level cannot be overcome, it's 75000

Bitcoin hit a low of 77711 USD during the day, then rebounded slightly to around 78225 USD. This is the second consecutive trading day experiencing macro pressure.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.599%, with the 30-year increasing by 11.8 basis points to 5.131%, reaching a new high since May 2025. BTC has fallen 3.9% from its opening price of 81000 USD on May 15, with both U.S. stocks and bond markets weakening simultaneously.

When BTC dropped below 82000 USD, the range of 77700-78000 USD was already the next support. Now, this support is bearing the full weight of macro pressure.

Caption: Bitcoin fell from the opening price of 81000 USD on May 15 to an intraday low of 77711 USD, then rebounded to 78225 USD, testing the support zone of 77700-78000 USD.

The Weight of Macro

BTC is a zero-yield asset, now competing with U.S. Treasuries yielding 4.5%-5.1%. As interest rates rise to this level, the opportunity cost of holding BTC increases sharply.

Data from K33 shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures is over 0.7. When the Nasdaq declines sharply, BTC's beta value amplifies. Both transmission channels are at work in this round of sell-off, and the macro environment has left the Federal Reserve with little room for easing.

April's CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI remains at 2.8%, and energy prices rose 17.9% over 12 months.

WTI crude oil closed at 105.42 USD on May 15, up 4.2% for the day and 11.33% for the month. Brent crude hit 109.26 USD, rising 3.35%. Trading Economics models predict Brent will reach 111.28 USD by the end of the quarter, and HSBC has raised its 2026 Brent forecast to an average of 95 USD. If supply agreements are delayed until late summer, the average could reach 110 USD.

May data from the University of Michigan shows one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.5%. The Federal Reserve's April FOMC statement emphasized evaluating inflation before considering easing. The threshold for policy relief is very high.

ETF Capital Flow Faltering at a Critical Moment

According to CoinShares data, in the week ending May 11, Bitcoin investment products attracted 706.1 million USD in net inflows, with institutional buying remaining strong.

However, daily data from Farside Investors shows that capital flows took a sharp downturn afterwards: on May 13, there was a net outflow of 630.4 million USD, a slight inflow of 131.3 million USD on the 14th, and another outflow of 290.4 million USD on the 15th.

Two of the three days experienced outflows. The ETF capital buffer disappeared just when the 78000 USD support needed defending the most. This buffer absorbed macro headwinds in previous weeks.

Support Map

The intraday low of 77716.09 USD has already fallen within the support range. If the daily closing can hold above 78000 USD, this pullback is still technically manageable.

If 77700 USD is effectively broken, the downward path opens: 76500 USD is the first follow-up target, and after bears confirm the breakdown, 75000 USD is a critical integer level where historical buying capital needs to show real support.

If it continues to extend, the 73000-74000 USD range will come into view. At that point, the market narrative will change from "correction" to "macro-driven risk asset deleveraging."

Returning to 80000 USD is the first step to reversing the bearish pattern — a daily close at that level would break the sequence of two previous declining lows, providing bulls with a technically clean reset.

The more challenging threshold is at 82000 USD. On May 13, BTC fell below the 200-day moving average (around 82000), meaning 82000 is both an integer resistance and a technical hurdle. A daily close above 82000 would make the test of 78000 a false breakdown.

Four Scenarios

What to Watch Next

If the 10-year yield falls back below 4.50%, oil prices cool down from above 105 USD, and ETF capital flow turns positive, Bitcoin could return to 80000 USD. This would break the declining low pattern of the past two days, leading to a re-test of 82000 USD — where BTC broke below the 200-day moving average on May 13.

A daily close above 82000 would turn the yield-driven decline into a false breakdown, opening up space towards the high 80000 USD range. The declines of the past week would later be viewed as a washout-style pullback, and the underlying accumulation logic remains intact.

On the other hand, if BTC closes below 77700 on the daily chart, and U.S. Treasury yields remain around 4.60% with continued ETF outflows, the support test will confirm a failure. 76500 is the first downside target, and after bears confirm the breakdown, a new leg of decline will commence. 75000 is a critical integer level where historical buying capital needs to demonstrate true support.

If weakness continues below 75000, the 74000-73000 range will come into play. At that position, the narrative will no longer be "cryptocurrency market correction," but "cross-asset macro deleveraging" — both stocks and bonds are being re-priced, and BTC is just following along.

The macro variables that will determine Bitcoin’s short-term direction need to stabilize first before a rebound anchor can form. The 10-year at 4.599%, the 30-year at 5.131%, provides holders with a yield floor of 4.5%-5.1%. BTC is a zero-yield asset, naturally at a disadvantage in terms of the interest rate differential. One-year inflation expectations are at 4.5%, while the Federal Reserve is still in the "assessment stage," and rapid easing is far from the reality of market pricing.

The 78000 USD range faces a structural test: whether ETF buyers and long-term holders can absorb selling pressure quickly enough under the impact of rising rate costs to stabilize the price before the support level is breached.