This morning at three o'clock, the cryptocurrency market experienced a simultaneous spike, with Bitcoin plummeting from yesterday's high of $77,800 to a low of $76,051, hitting as low as $76,201. Ethereum simultaneously dropped to $2,081, SOL bottomed at $83.78, and XRP fell to a low of $1.3638. The four currencies almost bottomed out at the same minute, followed by a V-shaped rebound. As of 09:08 Beijing time, Bitcoin rebounded to $77,110, Ethereum rose to $2,136, and the long-short situation completed a dramatic reversal in just a few hours.

The main reason for the pressure on risk assets this time is that, before the market opened on May 18th Eastern Time, U.S. President Trump publicly warned that military action might be taken against Iran, triggering market awareness of geopolitical risk, causing oil prices to soar to $108, which became the direct trigger for this spike.

The funding situation also constitutes pressure. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $1.039 billion during the week of May 11-15, ending a six-week streak of net inflows, with institutional funds showing a rare reversal signal.

Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term expired on May 15th, and the successor remains undecided, with potential appointees from Trump being heavily speculated in the market. During the same period, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield climbed to a one-year high, further suppressing the valuations of risk assets.

Four-hour chart of Bitcoin

First looking at Fibonacci, this round dropped from 82,799 to 76,010, and the current price is around 76,950, just stuck at the 0.236 position, which is around 77,160. There is also strong resistance at 0.382 at 78,600. What does this mean? It means that this is a weak rebound, not a real reversal, so don’t rush in.

Next, looking at the Bollinger Bands, the BOLL opening is still moving downward, and the K-line has continued to be pressed along the middle track. The rebound hasn’t even touched the upper track. This is a typical fluctuation in a bearish trend; as long as it can't hold above the middle track, the rebound strength will be weak, so don’t hold too high hopes.

As for MACD, it has started to turn red from a low level, and both DIF and DEA have also turned up from low levels, indicating that after a wave of bearish release, the market is undergoing a technical recovery. However, the red bars are too short, indicating that the rebound strength is limited, not a strong upward surge.

KDJ, on the other hand, has a golden cross at a low level and is moving upwards, with the K-line and D-line rising, and the J-value quickly increasing, indicating a short-term need for ongoing rebounds. But remember, this is more like a short-covering bounce, not a signal for the start of a major uptrend.

In summary, I would say: Bitcoin is currently in a weak rebound stage following a major decline, not in a primary uptrend. The next movement is likely to first rebound and test the range of 77,160 to 78,600, face pressure, then continue to oscillate before deciding on a direction. If the rebound cannot break above 78,600, and MACD crosses down again, it is likely to explore 76,000 or even 75,000 again.

Key levels to remember: short-term resistance at 77,160, strong resistance at 78,600, short-term support at 76,000, and strong support at 74,900. Operational thinking, in my style, do not chase the long position at the current location, wait until the rebound pressure levels to see the intensity, and for a real strong trend, it must stabilize above 78,600; if it breaks below 76,000, continue to defend.

Remember this: in a downtrend, a rebound is not the bulls turning around, but rather the main force giving you an opportunity to escape. The market has not truly turned strong yet, so don’t get carried away; stay steady.

It is better to give you a correct idea and trend than to provide you with a 100% accurate suggestion. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish, advice may earn you a moment, but a mindset learned earns you a lifetime!

Writing time: (2026-05-19, 19:13)

(Text - Grandmaster Talks about Coins) hereby declares: Online publication has a delay, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; enter the market with caution!

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